The Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) enters the first week of March 2026 after a mixed February that saw the benchmark oscillate within a narrow trading range. As Saudi Arabia’s flagship equity index, TASI reflects broader confidence in the Kingdom’s economic trajectory, oil market dynamics, and global risk sentiment. This weekly forecast covers the prior week’s performance, key events ahead, sector analysis, technical levels, and scenario-based outlook for March 1-6.
For background on Saudi Arabia’s broader economic picture, see our Saudi Arabia economy guide.
Previous Week Recap (February 22-26)
TASI closed the final trading week of February at approximately 12,280, down 0.6% for the week. Trading volumes declined modestly compared to the prior week, with average daily turnover of SAR 6.2 billion ($1.65 billion). The index traded within a range of 12,180 to 12,385 throughout the week.
Key drivers of the week:
- Oil price pressure: Brent crude settled near $74.50 per barrel, declining roughly 1.8% over the week on concerns about global demand softness and speculation around OPEC+ production policy ahead of the March ministerial review.
- Banking sector consolidation: After a strong January earnings season, Saudi banking stocks traded sideways. Al Rajhi Bank (-0.4%) and Saudi National Bank (-0.7%) weighed on the index as investors took profits following Q4 2025 results.
- Materials sector weakness: SABIC declined 1.2% amid continued weakness in global petrochemical margins. Downstream chemical prices remain under pressure from Chinese overcapacity.
- Telecom resilience: Saudi Telecom Company (stc) gained 0.9% on continued subscriber growth and data revenue expansion, providing a partial offset to declines elsewhere.
- Foreign flows: Qualified Foreign Investor (QFI) net flows were marginally negative at -SAR 380 million for the week, suggesting cautious positioning by international investors ahead of March.
Key Events for the Week Ahead
Several catalysts could influence TASI direction during the March 1-6 trading week.
Economic Data and Policy
- PMI Release (March 2): The Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI for February is expected, with consensus forecasting a reading above 57, indicating continued non-oil sector expansion. A reading above expectations could provide a lift to cyclical and consumer-facing stocks.
- OPEC+ Ministerial Monitoring Committee (March 3): The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meets to review compliance and discuss production targets. Market participants will watch for signals about the pace of production unwinding for Q2 2026. Any indication of faster-than-expected increases could pressure oil prices and weigh on Saudi energy stocks.
- US Jobs Report (March 7): While falling outside the trading week (Saudi markets are closed Friday-Saturday), the US Non-Farm Payrolls release will set sentiment for the following week. A strong report could reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts, strengthening the dollar but potentially tightening global liquidity conditions.
Earnings and Corporate Events
- Late Q4 Reporters: A handful of smaller-cap companies will report Q4 2025 earnings during the week. While the major banks and blue chips have already reported, materials and consumer sector results could influence their respective sub-indices.
- Saudi Aramco Dividend Ex-Date: Investors should note upcoming ex-dividend dates for Aramco’s Q4 distribution, which typically influences trading patterns around Saudi Arabia’s most heavily weighted stock.
Sector Analysis
Banking (TASI Weight: ~32%)
Saudi banks reported solid Q4 2025 results, with aggregate sector profits growing approximately 12% year-over-year. Loan growth remained healthy at 14% annually, driven by mortgage expansion and corporate lending. Net interest margins benefited from the rate environment, though the prospect of SAMA rate cuts later in 2026 (following expected Fed easing) could compress margins in H2.
Outlook for the week: Neutral to slightly positive. Valuations are reasonable at sector-average price-to-earnings of 11.5x, but near-term catalysts are limited with earnings season largely complete. Al Rajhi and SNB remain range-bound.
Materials (TASI Weight: ~14%)
SABIC and its downstream peers face headwinds from weak global petrochemical prices. Chinese chemical production overcapacity continues to suppress margins for ethylene, polyethylene, and methanol producers. Saudi Arabia’s feedstock cost advantage provides a floor, but margin expansion is unlikely until global supply-demand rebalances.
Outlook for the week: Cautious. SABIC trades near 52-week lows. A bounce is possible on technical grounds, but fundamental headwinds persist. Watch for any Chinese stimulus announcements that could shift sentiment.
Real Estate and Construction (TASI Weight: ~6%)
Saudi real estate continues to benefit from Vision 2030-driven mega-project spending. Dar Al Arkan, Jabal Omar Development, and Riyad REIT have all seen positive momentum from Riyadh and Jeddah residential and commercial development. Government capital spending remains at elevated levels, supporting construction companies.
Outlook for the week: Mildly positive. Project awards and construction activity remain robust. The sector is less sensitive to oil price fluctuations and more tied to domestic policy continuity.
Technology and Telecom (TASI Weight: ~8%)
stc and its peers benefit from Saudi Arabia’s digital transformation agenda. 5G expansion, data center investment, and growing demand for cloud services support revenue growth. The NOMU parallel market continues to list technology-oriented small caps, adding depth to the sector.
Outlook for the week: Positive. stc’s defensive characteristics and growth profile make it attractive during periods of uncertainty. The stock has outperformed the broader index year-to-date.
For a comprehensive view of Middle Eastern equity markets, see our Middle East stock markets guide.
Foreign Investment Flows
Qualified Foreign Investor (QFI) flows have been volatile in 2026. After strong net inflows of SAR 4.2 billion in January, February saw a reversal with approximately SAR 1.5 billion in net outflows. This pattern reflects global risk rotation rather than Saudi-specific concerns, as emerging and frontier markets broadly experienced outflows during February due to US dollar strength and higher US Treasury yields.
MSCI Emerging Markets Index rebalancing remains a structural tailwind for TASI. Saudi Arabia’s weight in the MSCI EM Index has gradually increased since initial inclusion in 2019, driving passive inflows. The next semi-annual review in May 2026 could result in further weight adjustments.
Technical Analysis
TASI’s price action over recent weeks suggests consolidation within a well-defined range.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
| Level Type | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 12,650 | January 2026 high, major psychological level |
| Resistance 2 | 12,500 | 50-day moving average convergence |
| Resistance 1 | 12,385 | Prior week high, near-term ceiling |
| Current Price | 12,280 | February 26 close |
| Support 1 | 12,180 | Prior week low, recent demand zone |
| Support 2 | 12,050 | 200-day moving average |
| Support 3 | 11,900 | November 2025 low, major support |
Moving averages: The 50-day moving average (12,490) sits above the current price, indicating short-term bearish momentum. The 200-day moving average (12,050) remains below, providing a longer-term support floor. The gap between the two averages is narrowing, suggesting potential for a directional move.
RSI: The 14-day Relative Strength Index reads approximately 44, placing TASI in neutral territory. This is neither overbought nor oversold, consistent with the current consolidation phase.
Volume profile: Declining volumes through February suggest a lack of conviction. A breakout above 12,385 or breakdown below 12,180 on above-average volume would signal the next directional move.
Week Ahead Forecast: Scenario Analysis
| Scenario | Probability | TASI Range | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish | 25% | 12,350 – 12,550 | OPEC+ signals production restraint, strong PMI, oil above $76, positive foreign flows |
| Base Case | 55% | 12,150 – 12,380 | Range-bound trading, OPEC+ maintains current trajectory, oil steady near $74-75, neutral flows |
| Bearish | 20% | 11,950 – 12,180 | OPEC+ signals faster production increases, oil below $72, continued foreign outflows, materials sector weakness |
Analyst Consensus
The consensus among Saudi market strategists surveyed by Bloomberg and local brokerages (Al Rajhi Capital, SNB Capital, Riyad Capital) places a base-case year-end 2026 TASI target in the range of 13,000-13,400, implying 6-9% upside from current levels. Near-term, most analysts expect continued consolidation until clearer signals emerge on OPEC+ production policy and the US interest rate trajectory.
Key risks to the downside: Faster-than-expected OPEC+ production increases, a global growth slowdown, or sustained dollar strength that tightens liquidity conditions for emerging market equities.
Key catalysts to the upside: OPEC+ production discipline, positive Vision 2030 project announcements, MSCI weight increases, and evidence of accelerating non-oil GDP growth.
Trading Considerations
For the week of March 1-6, traders should monitor the OPEC+ JMMC outcome on March 3 as the primary catalyst. An index move above 12,385 on strong volume would suggest a breakout toward the 12,500 resistance zone. Conversely, a close below 12,180 could open a path toward the 200-day moving average at 12,050.
Sector rotation from materials into real estate and technology may continue if oil-sensitive names remain under pressure. Defensive positioning in stc and dividend-paying utilities could provide portfolio stability during the consolidation phase.
FAQ
What is the TASI index?
The Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) is the main stock market index of the Saudi Exchange (Tadawul), the largest stock exchange in the Middle East by market capitalization. It tracks all companies listed on the main market, with banking, materials, and energy stocks holding the largest weights.
What are the TASI trading hours?
The Saudi Exchange operates Sunday through Thursday. The main trading session runs from 10:00 AM to 3:00 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST/GMT+3). A pre-open auction runs from 9:30 AM to 10:00 AM, and a post-close session runs from 3:00 PM to 3:10 PM.
Can foreign investors buy Saudi stocks?
Yes, Qualified Foreign Investors (QFIs) can invest directly in Saudi-listed stocks, subject to registration requirements with the Capital Market Authority (CMA). Foreign investors can also gain exposure through ETFs and swap-based instruments. Since Saudi Arabia’s inclusion in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in 2019, foreign participation has grown substantially.
How does OPEC+ affect the TASI index?
OPEC+ production decisions directly impact oil prices, which influence Saudi Arabia’s fiscal position, corporate earnings (particularly Aramco and petrochemical companies), and overall market sentiment. TASI has historically shown a positive correlation with oil prices, though the relationship has moderated as the Saudi economy diversifies.
Key Takeaways
- TASI closed February at approximately 12,280, down 0.6% for the final week, trading within a consolidation range.
- The OPEC+ JMMC meeting on March 3 is the key catalyst for the week, with production policy signals likely to drive oil prices and Saudi equity sentiment.
- Banking stocks are fairly valued after a strong earnings season; materials face continued headwinds from global petrochemical weakness.
- Technical analysis indicates neutral momentum with key support at 12,180 and resistance at 12,385; a breakout in either direction requires above-average volume.
- The base case (55% probability) expects continued range-bound trading between 12,150 and 12,380, with directional conviction awaiting clearer macro signals.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. For broader context on Saudi Arabia’s economy, visit our Saudi Arabia economy guide. For a regional markets overview, see our Middle East stock markets guide.
