The Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) enters the third week of April deep in Q1 earnings season, with banking results now the dominant force driving sentiment. After four consecutive weekly declines, the Saudi stock market closed at 12,180 on April 11 — down 0.9% for the week and firmly below its 200-day moving average. The index is testing the critical 12,200 support level that was flagged as the next floor in the prior week’s outlook. Whether it holds depends almost entirely on the earnings reports due this week.

The week ahead brings additional Q1 results — including closely watched reports from Al Rajhi Bank and STC — alongside the Aramco dividend ex-date, continued reaction to oil prices falling below $70 Brent, and China’s Q1 GDP release on Wednesday, which carries implications for petrochemical and energy-linked names across the Tadawul.

Weekly Performance Summary

TASI’s fourth consecutive weekly decline has nearly erased the year-to-date gain, which now stands at a thin +0.4%. Daily trading volume averaged SAR 6.0 billion — elevated above the 30-day average of SAR 5.5 billion — reflecting active repositioning around earnings releases and the Aramco dividend record date.

The selling was concentrated in the first half of the week as Brent crude’s break below $70 dragged Aramco and energy names lower. A partial recovery Thursday and Friday was driven by better-than-expected early Q1 bank earnings, which provided a floor. The net result: a market being pulled in two directions, with oil weakness and earnings strength in a tug-of-war.

Q1 Earnings Season: Banking Results Take Center Stage

Banking sector earnings are the defining catalyst for TASI this week and next. The first wave of results arrived in the prior week, and the picture is constructive:

Key Banking Results (Reported)

SNB’s results anchored the sector with solid loan growth and stable net interest margins. Alinma Bank’s beat — driven by strong mortgage origination and fee income growth — lifted regional bank sentiment. Riyad Bank’s slight miss was attributed to higher provisioning but did not trigger broader concern.

Key Earnings to Watch This Week

Al Rajhi Bank is the most consequential single earnings report of the season. As the largest Islamic bank globally by market capitalization and the highest-valued stock in the TASI banking sector (~14x forward earnings), its results set the tone. Consensus expects SAR 4.9-5.1 billion in Q1 net income, driven by mortgage lending growth and stable margins. A beat would likely catalyze a relief rally in the broader market; a miss would amplify selling pressure given the stock’s premium valuation.

STC is the second key report. Saudi Telecom has been a relative outperformer in 2026, benefiting from defensive positioning and pre-dividend buying. Consensus expects steady mid-single-digit earnings growth. STC’s results matter for the non-bank portion of TASI and signal the health of the Saudi consumer economy.

Petrochemical Sector: Oil Below $70 Hits Sentiment

The petrochemical sector continues to lag, and Brent’s break below $70 has added another layer of pressure.

• SABIC fell 1.8% for the week, extending its YTD decline to approximately 9%. Asian polymer margins remain compressed, and Chinese overcapacity in basic chemicals continues to weigh on Saudi exporters’ pricing power.
• Saudi Kayan and Yansab both declined over 1%, tracking the broader sector weakness.
• China Q1 GDP (April 16) is the key near-term catalyst for petrochemicals. A miss below 4.6% consensus would confirm weak Chinese industrial demand and likely push the sector lower. An upside surprise could trigger a relief trade.

The petrochemical sector accounts for approximately 8% of TASI market capitalization and has been a persistent drag in 2026. Until Chinese demand recovers or product spreads widen, the sector’s contribution to index performance will remain negative.

Aramco Stock and Dividend Dynamics

Saudi Aramco declined to SAR 27.15 — its lowest close since October 2025 — as Brent’s fall below $70 weighed heavily. The stock has now declined for four consecutive weeks.

Dividend ex-date: The H2 2025 dividend ex-date falls in the week of April 12-18. The base quarterly dividend of $19.5 billion remains fully covered at current oil prices, but the performance-linked variable component will be smaller given lower oil revenue. At a trailing yield of approximately 6.7%, the dividend continues to attract income-focused buyers.

Dividend capture positioning: Institutional and retail accumulation ahead of the ex-date is providing a support floor for the stock despite the oil price headwind. Post ex-date, there is typically a modest pullback as income traders exit. This creates a potential short-term positive (pre-ex-date buying) followed by a negative (post-ex-date selling) that the market will navigate this week.

Foreign Investor Positioning

Foreign investors were net sellers for a fourth consecutive week, though the pace has moderated from the SAR 310 million outflow in the prior period. The cumulative four-week outflow of SAR 1.31 billion has significantly eroded the YTD inflow total, which now stands at SAR 1.61 billion — down from SAR 2.92 billion four weeks ago.

The pattern of persistent foreign selling is concerning but not yet at panic levels. QFI outflows reflect a combination of oil price repricing, emerging market rotation, and pre-earnings caution. A strong Al Rajhi result and stabilization in oil prices could slow or reverse the outflow trend.

Support and Resistance Levels

TASI remains below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages — a bearish technical configuration now in its third week. The index is testing the 12,200-12,100 support zone, which represents the lower boundary of the Q4 2025-Q1 2026 trading range.

A weekly close below 12,100 would be technically significant, confirming a medium-term downtrend and opening a path toward 12,050 and potentially 11,900. On the upside, reclaiming the 200-day MA at 12,310 would be the first signal of stabilization, requiring a catalyst (strong Al Rajhi earnings, oil recovery, or positive China data).

Week-Ahead Outlook

Base case (50% probability): TASI trades in the 12,100-12,350 range. Al Rajhi earnings meet consensus, stabilizing the banking sector. Aramco dividend ex-date generates net buying support in the early part of the week. China GDP comes in near consensus, producing a muted reaction. The index holds above 12,100 but lacks the catalyst to reclaim the 200-day MA.

Bull case (20%): Al Rajhi reports above SAR 5.1 billion, triggering a sector-wide rally. China GDP surprises above 4.8%, lifting petrochemical names. TASI reclaims 12,300 and pushes toward the 200-day MA at 12,310. Foreign selling pauses as earnings narrative improves.

Bear case (30%): Al Rajhi disappoints below SAR 4.8 billion, confirming that the credit slowdown is impacting the sector’s best-in-class franchise. China GDP misses, pushing Brent further below $70 and dragging petrochemicals lower. TASI breaks 12,100, targeting 12,050 with accelerating foreign outflows.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the TASI index level this week?

As of April 11, 2026, the TASI index closed at 12,180, down 0.9% for the week — the fourth consecutive weekly decline. The index is up just 0.4% year-to-date and is trading below both its 50-day moving average (12,470) and 200-day moving average (12,310). It is testing the key 12,100-12,200 support zone.

What is driving the Saudi stock market this week?

Q1 2026 earnings season is the primary driver. Early banking results have been constructive (SNB in line, Alinma beat), and Al Rajhi Bank’s report — expected mid-week — is the most consequential single catalyst. Oil prices falling below $70 Brent are weighing on Aramco and petrochemical stocks, while the Aramco dividend ex-date is generating positioning activity.

When does Al Rajhi Bank report Q1 2026 earnings?

Al Rajhi Bank is expected to report Q1 2026 results around April 14-15. Consensus projects net income of SAR 4.9-5.1 billion, representing 7-9% year-over-year growth driven by mortgage lending and stable margins. As the highest-valued bank in the sector at approximately 14x forward earnings, Al Rajhi’s results set the tone for the broader market.

How is Saudi Aramco performing on the stock market?

Saudi Aramco (2222.SR) closed at SAR 27.15, down 1.8% for the week and 3.4% year-to-date — its lowest level since October 2025. The stock is tracking Brent crude lower following its break below $70. The trailing dividend yield of approximately 6.7% provides support, and the H2 2025 dividend ex-date this week is generating institutional accumulation. The base quarterly dividend of $19.5 billion remains covered at current oil prices.

What are the key support levels for TASI this week?

TASI is testing the 12,100-12,200 support zone, which represents the lower boundary of the Q4 2025-Q1 2026 trading range. A weekly close below 12,100 would confirm a medium-term downtrend and open a path to 12,050 and potentially 11,900. The 200-day moving average at 12,310 is the first resistance level to reclaim for a stabilization signal.

Key Takeaways

• TASI fell 0.9% to 12,180, marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline and nearly erasing the year-to-date gain, which now stands at just +0.4%.
• Q1 earnings season is in full swing, with early banking results constructive (SNB in line at SAR 4.7B, Alinma beat at SAR 1.3B). Al Rajhi Bank’s report this week is the most important single catalyst, with consensus at SAR 4.9-5.1 billion.
• Saudi Aramco declined to SAR 27.15, its lowest since October 2025, as Brent crude broke below $70. The H2 2025 dividend ex-date this week generates positioning activity, with the trailing yield at approximately 6.7%.
• The petrochemical sector continues to underperform, with SABIC down approximately 9% year-to-date. China’s Q1 GDP release on April 16 is the key catalyst for the sector.
• Foreign investors have been net sellers for four consecutive weeks, with cumulative outflows of SAR 1.31 billion eroding the YTD inflow total from SAR 2.92 billion to SAR 1.61 billion.
• Technical indicators remain bearish with TASI below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The 12,100 level is the critical support — a break below would confirm a medium-term downtrend.

For broader market context, read our guides to Middle East Stock Markets, the Saudi Arabia Economy, and Saudi Aramco Explained.