The Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) enters the second week of April in a holding pattern, caught between the gravity of weaker oil prices and the anticipation of Q1 2026 earnings season. After a third consecutive weekly decline, the index closed at 12,285 on April 4 — down 0.8% for the week and now hovering just above its 200-day moving average. The Saudi stock market is at an inflection point: earnings must deliver to justify current valuations, or the technical picture deteriorates further.

The week ahead brings the start of Q1 earnings reports, with Al Rajhi Bank and Saudi National Bank (SNB) among the first major companies expected to report. Saudi Aramco’s dividend ex-date is approaching, adding another layer of positioning activity. This outlook covers performance, sector dynamics, Aramco stock, foreign flows, and key levels for the week ahead.

Weekly Performance Summary

TASI posted its third consecutive weekly decline — the longest losing streak since October 2025. Daily volumes averaged SAR 5.7 billion, slightly above the 30-day average of SAR 5.4 billion but down from the elevated selling volume seen in late March. The decline was orderly rather than panicked, with the index trading in a narrow 12,220-12,380 range through most of the week.

The reduced volatility relative to the prior week’s sharper selloff suggests the market is consolidating rather than capitulating. However, the proximity to the 200-day moving average (12,310, now breached to the downside) creates a technically precarious position that requires resolution in the coming sessions.

Top Movers (Week Ending Apr 4)

Top Gainers

Top Decliners

The week’s pattern was clear: defensive and income-generating names outperformed, while cyclical and oil-linked stocks lagged. STC’s gain was driven by pre-dividend positioning and a broker upgrade citing resilient ARPU trends. Bupa Arabia benefited from continued demand growth for health insurance. The petrochemical sector bore the brunt of the selloff as Brent crude dipped near $71 and Asian polymer margins remained compressed.

Sector Breakdown

Banking: All Eyes on Q1 Earnings

The banking sector is the focal point for the week ahead. Q1 2026 earnings reports begin arriving, and the sector needs to deliver on consensus expectations of 7-9% earnings growth to support current valuations.

• Al Rajhi Bank: Expected to report in the first wave. Consensus projects net income of approximately SAR 4.8-5.0 billion for Q1, driven by mortgage lending growth and stable net interest margins. The stock trades at ~14x forward earnings. At SAR 96, it is 3.5% below its March high.
• Saudi National Bank (SNB): Also expected among the first reporters. Consensus projects SAR 4.5-4.7 billion in Q1 net income. SNB’s corporate lending book and fee income diversification are the key growth drivers. The stock trades at ~12x forward earnings.
• SAMA credit data: The latest reading showed lending growth of 9.8% year-over-year — solid but slightly below the 10.5% consensus. Any further deceleration in Q1 would weigh on forward estimates.

The market is not pricing in a miss, which creates asymmetric risk. A beat would be incrementally positive. A miss would trigger meaningful re-rating, particularly for Al Rajhi, which carries the highest valuation multiple in the sector.

Petrochemicals: Tracking Weaker Oil

The petrochemical sector continues to underperform, with SABIC down 2.6% for the week and now off 7% from its February high. The sector’s challenges are threefold:

• Oil price weakness: Brent at $70-72 compresses feedstock-to-product spreads for naphtha-based crackers, though ethane-based producers (which dominate in Saudi Arabia) are more insulated.
• Asian demand: China’s petrochemical imports remain sluggish, with overcapacity in domestic Chinese production limiting export margins for Saudi producers.
• Q1 earnings expectations: Consensus expects flat to modestly declining earnings for most Saudi petrochemical names, with SABIC potentially reporting a year-over-year decline in Q1 profits.

Saudi Kayan and Advanced Petrochemical are exceptions, with niche product portfolios that offer better margin resilience, but the broader sector remains a headwind for TASI.

Retail and Consumer: Seasonal Patterns

The consumer sector is entering a seasonally quieter period following the Ramadan and Eid spending cycle. Retail activity typically moderates in April before picking up again in the summer travel season. Jarir Marketing was flat, and Extra (United Electronics) was marginally lower. The sector is not a near-term catalyst but offers stability for defensive positioning.

Aramco Stock Analysis

Saudi Aramco continues to track oil prices lower, closing at SAR 27.65 — its lowest level since December 2025. The stock has now declined for three consecutive weeks, mirroring the Brent crude trajectory.

Key watch items for Aramco this week:

• Dividend ex-date approaching: The H2 2025 dividend ex-date is expected in mid-April. The base dividend of $19.5 billion per quarter remains fully covered, but the performance-linked component is sensitive to oil prices. At current Brent levels ($70-72), the variable dividend is likely to be smaller than the prior distribution.
• Dividend capture trades: Institutional and retail investors typically accumulate Aramco shares in the two weeks before the ex-date to capture the yield. This positioning activity should provide a floor for the stock, even in a softer oil price environment.
• OPEC+ production trajectory: Aramco’s output is moving from ~9.0 mb/d toward 9.1 mb/d under the April adjustment. Higher volumes partially offset lower prices for revenue, but the market is focused on the price side of the equation.

Foreign Investor Positioning

Foreign investors were net sellers for a third consecutive week, with QFI outflows of SAR 310 million. The pace of selling has moderated from the SAR 480 million outflow in the prior week, suggesting that the most aggressive positioning is behind us. However, three consecutive weeks of net foreign selling is a meaningful signal — international investors are reducing Saudi equity exposure, likely in response to weaker oil prices and broader emerging market caution ahead of Q1 earnings.

Year-to-date foreign flows remain positive at SAR 1.84 billion, but the cumulative outflows over the past three weeks (SAR 1.08 billion) have eroded more than a third of the YTD inflow total.

Support and Resistance Levels

TASI has closed below its 200-day moving average (12,310) for the first time since August 2025. This is a significant technical development. The 200-day MA has functioned as reliable support throughout 2025 and into 2026 — its breach signals that the current correction is more than a routine pullback.

The 12,200 level is the next meaningful support, representing a confluence of previous trading range lows and the lower bound of the Q1 consolidation zone. A weekly close below 12,200 would confirm a medium-term bearish shift and could accelerate selling toward 12,050. On the upside, reclaiming the 200-day MA at 12,310 and then the 50-day MA at 12,470 would signal a reversal of the current downtrend.

Key Economic Releases

The Saudi PMI is the most directly relevant domestic data point. February PMI came in at 58.4 — firmly in expansion territory. A March reading above 57 would reinforce the narrative of domestic economic resilience despite oil weakness. The Q1 earnings reports, beginning mid-week, will dominate price action for individual names and the banking sector sub-index.

Week-Ahead Outlook

Base case (50% probability): TASI trades in the 12,200-12,400 range. Q1 earnings reports meet consensus expectations, stabilizing the banking sector. Aramco dividend positioning provides a floor. The index consolidates near the 200-day MA without a decisive break in either direction.

Bull case (20%): Strong Q1 bank earnings (above 9% growth) trigger a relief rally. Saudi PMI comes in above 58, reinforcing domestic strength. TASI reclaims the 200-day MA (12,310) and pushes toward 12,470. Aramco recovers as dividend capture trades accelerate.

Bear case (30%): Q1 bank earnings disappoint (below 7% growth), confirming that the SAMA credit growth miss was a leading indicator. Brent falls below $70, dragging Aramco toward SAR 27. TASI breaks 12,200 decisively and targets 12,050, with foreign outflows accelerating.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the TASI index level this week?

As of April 4, 2026, the TASI index closed at 12,285, down 0.8% for the week — the third consecutive weekly decline. The index is up 1.3% year-to-date and has broken below its 200-day moving average (12,310) for the first time since August 2025, a technically significant development.

Why is the Saudi stock market declining?

TASI has fallen for three consecutive weeks due to weaker oil prices (Brent at $70-72, near 2026 lows), persistent foreign investor selling (three consecutive weeks of net outflows totaling SAR 1.08 billion), cautious positioning ahead of Q1 earnings, and below-consensus SAMA credit growth data that has tempered banking sector expectations. The breach of the 200-day moving average has also triggered technical selling.

When do Saudi companies report Q1 2026 earnings?

Q1 2026 earnings season begins in the second week of April, with major banks (Al Rajhi, Saudi National Bank) among the first to report. Saudi Aramco typically reports in mid-May. The banking sector is expected to deliver 7-9% earnings growth, and earnings outcomes will be the dominant driver of TASI price action through late April.

How is Saudi Aramco stock performing?

Saudi Aramco (2222.SR) closed at SAR 27.65, down 1.5% for the week and 1.6% year-to-date. The stock is at its lowest since December 2025, tracking Brent crude’s decline. The trailing dividend yield of 6.5% provides support, and the approaching H2 2025 dividend ex-date (expected mid-April) is attracting income-focused positioning. The base quarterly dividend of $19.5 billion remains covered at current oil prices.

What are the key support levels for TASI?

The TASI has broken below its 200-day moving average at 12,310, which had served as reliable support since mid-2025. The next key support level is 12,200, representing previous trading range lows. A weekly close below 12,200 would confirm a medium-term bearish signal and open a path to 12,050. Resistance is at 12,310 (200-day MA) and 12,470 (50-day MA).

Key Takeaways

• TASI fell 0.8% to 12,285, marking its third consecutive weekly decline and breaking below the 200-day moving average (12,310) for the first time since August 2025.
• Q1 2026 earnings season begins this week, with Al Rajhi Bank and Saudi National Bank among the first to report. Consensus expects 7-9% banking sector earnings growth, and the market needs results to meet expectations to justify valuations.
• Saudi Aramco declined to SAR 27.65, its lowest since December 2025, with the approaching dividend ex-date providing a positioning floor as income investors accumulate shares ahead of the record date.
• Foreign investors have been net sellers for three consecutive weeks, with cumulative outflows of SAR 1.08 billion eroding more than a third of the year-to-date inflow total.
• The petrochemical sector continues to lag, with SABIC down 2.6% as weaker oil prices and sluggish Asian demand compress margins. The sector needs a China demand recovery to reverse its underperformance.
• Defensive names (STC, Bupa Arabia, healthcare) are showing relative strength, consistent with a market rotating toward income and stability ahead of an uncertain earnings season.

For broader market context, read our guides to Middle East Stock Markets, the Saudi Arabia Economy, and Saudi Aramco Explained.