The Saudi stock market enters the second week of March facing a familiar tension: strong domestic economic fundamentals driven by Vision 2030 spending and non-oil growth versus external headwinds from softer oil prices and global risk appetite fluctuations. The TASI gave back a portion of February’s gains last week, but the pullback was orderly and volumes were moderate, suggesting this is healthy consolidation rather than the start of a sustained downturn.
This week brings several potential catalysts, most notably Aramco’s Q4 2025 earnings and the broader implications of key global data releases. Here is the full weekly outlook.
For a comprehensive overview of the Tadawul exchange and how the Saudi market operates, see our Middle East Stock Markets Guide.
Last Week Recap (March 1-7)
The TASI opened the week at 12,270 and posted a modest decline over five trading sessions, closing at approximately 12,180.
Daily breakdown:
– Sunday: +0.2%. Positive open on follow-through from the prior week, with materials and utilities leading. Aramco flat.
– Monday: -0.4%. Oil prices slipped below $75 intraday, pulling petrochemicals and energy names lower. SABIC fell 1.2%.
– Tuesday: -0.3%. Banking stocks led the decline, with Al Rajhi down 0.8% and SNB down 0.5%, as traders rotated out after a strong earnings-driven February rally.
– Wednesday: +0.1%. Modest recovery attempt. Defensive sectors (telecoms, utilities) outperformed. STC gained 0.6%.
– Thursday: -0.3%. End-of-week selling pressure. Foreign investors were notable sellers in the final session, contributing to a weaker close.
Weekly volume: Average daily turnover was approximately SAR 5.8 billion, below the February average of SAR 6.5 billion, indicating reduced conviction.
Earnings Season Update
The Q4 2025 earnings season is largely complete for major TASI constituents. The overall picture is solid, with non-oil sectors continuing to demonstrate the diversification that underpins Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation.
Banking Sector
| Bank | Q4 2025 Net Income (SAR bn) | YoY Change | Key Takeaway |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Rajhi Bank | 5.1 | +14% | Strong retail lending growth; mortgage portfolio up 18% YoY |
| Saudi National Bank (SNB) | 5.6 | +9% | Improved cost-to-income ratio; cautious guidance on NIM |
| Riyad Bank | 2.3 | +12% | Corporate lending acceleration; Vision 2030 project financing |
| Saudi British Bank (SABB) | 1.9 | +8% | Wealth management AUM growth of 22% |
| Banque Saudi Fransi (BSF) | 1.5 | +6% | Lowest growth among top-tier; trade finance headwinds |
Aggregate banking sector net income grew approximately 11% year-over-year in Q4 2025, driven by strong loan growth (particularly mortgages and Vision 2030 project financing), improved fee income, and stable asset quality. However, forward guidance from several banks flagged potential net interest margin (NIM) compression in 2026 as SAMA’s rate path follows the US Fed, which is expected to cut rates further this year.
Non-Financial Highlights
- Saudi Aramco: Q4 earnings to be released this coming week (expected March 9-11). Market expectations are for net income of approximately $27-29 billion, reflecting lower average oil prices in Q4 versus Q3, partially offset by volume and downstream improvements.
- SABIC: Reported Q4 net income of SAR 850 million, down 8% YoY on weaker petrochemical margins. Management guided for a gradual recovery in 2026 as Chinese destocking ends.
- STC Group: Q4 revenue up 6% YoY, with strong enterprise and cloud services growth partially offsetting flat consumer revenue.
- ACWA Power: Continued strong order book growth, with new project awards in renewable energy across the Middle East and Central Asia. Stock up 15% YTD.
Sector Performance
| Sector | Weekly Change | YTD Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banks | -0.9% | +5.8% | Profit-taking post-earnings; still the top-performing sector YTD |
| Materials | -1.1% | +2.1% | SABIC weakness; fertilizer names mixed on ammonia pricing |
| Energy | -0.5% | +1.3% | Aramco held up; services names weaker with oil price |
| Telecoms | +0.4% | +4.2% | Defensive rotation; STC and Zain KSA both positive |
| Real Estate | -0.2% | +6.5% | Vision 2030 theme intact; Dar Al Arkan steady |
| Utilities | +0.3% | +3.8% | Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) supported by infrastructure spending |
| Healthcare | +0.1% | +7.2% | Best-performing sector YTD; Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib at all-time highs |
| Consumer Staples | -0.3% | +1.9% | Almarai and Savola slightly weaker on input cost concerns |
| Insurance | +0.6% | +8.1% | Continued consolidation benefits; Bupa Arabia strong |
| Capital Goods | -0.4% | +9.3% | Profit-taking in construction names; giga-project pipeline intact |
The defensive rotation into telecoms and utilities, combined with selling in cyclical sectors (banks, materials, energy), is characteristic of a market in consolidation mode rather than a bearish shift.
Foreign Investor Flows
Foreign institutional investors (Qualified Foreign Investors, or QFIs) were net sellers for the second consecutive week, with estimated net outflows of SAR 620 million. This follows net selling of SAR 440 million the prior week.
Context: Year-to-date, foreign investors remain net buyers at approximately SAR 2.8 billion, reflecting ongoing structural inflows driven by Saudi Arabia’s increasing weight in MSCI and FTSE Russell emerging market indices. The recent selling appears tactical — linked to profit-taking after the strong February rally and rebalancing ahead of quarter-end — rather than a fundamental reassessment of the Saudi market.
ETF flows: The iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) saw modest outflows of approximately $35 million during the week, consistent with the broader pattern.
For a deeper understanding of the Saudi economy that underpins market fundamentals, see our Saudi Arabia Economy Guide.
Key Events This Week (March 8-13)
| Date | Event | Potential Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Sun, Mar 8 | Market opens after weekend; digestion of global Friday data | Tone-setting session based on US payrolls and oil close |
| Mon-Tue, Mar 9-10 | Saudi Aramco Q4 2025 earnings release (expected) | Largest TASI constituent; dividend guidance critical |
| Tue, Mar 10 | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook | Oil price impact feeds through to energy and materials |
| Wed, Mar 11 | US CPI (February) | Dollar and global risk appetite; indirect TASI impact |
| Thu, Mar 12 | OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report | Demand/supply outlook affects Saudi revenue expectations |
| Thu, Mar 12 | Saudi Industrial Production data (January) | Non-oil economic activity indicator |
| Ongoing | Nomu (parallel market) activity | Continued IPO pipeline; 3 new listings expected in March |
Aramco’s earnings are the marquee event. The market is well-prepared for lower sequential earnings (Q4 oil prices averaged ~$73 versus ~$76 in Q3), but the dividend announcement is what matters most — Aramco’s base dividend of $0.3105 per share per quarter ($19.5 billion annually) plus any performance-linked component will set income expectations for 2026.
Technical Analysis
TASI — Key Levels
| Level Type | Points | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 12,650 | October 2025 high; major overhead barrier |
| Resistance 2 | 12,420 | February 2026 intra-month high |
| Resistance 1 | 12,300 | 20-day moving average; immediate resistance |
| Current Level | ~12,180 | — |
| Support 1 | 12,100 | 50-day moving average; first support zone |
| Support 2 | 12,050 | 200-day moving average; critical technical floor |
| Support 3 | 11,850 | January 2026 low; break below is bearish |
Momentum indicators: The 14-day RSI is at 46, neutral territory that does not signal imminent reversal in either direction. The MACD histogram has turned slightly negative for the first time since early February, confirming the loss of short-term upward momentum but not yet flashing a sell signal.
Volume profile: Declining volume during the pullback is constructive — it suggests sellers are not aggressively pressing positions, and the decline is more a function of buyers stepping back than active distribution.
Scenario Table: Week of March 8-13
| Scenario | Probability | TASI Target | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish breakout | 20% | 12,350-12,450 | Aramco earnings beat expectations; dividend increase; oil recovers above $76; foreign flows turn positive |
| Modest recovery | 30% | 12,200-12,350 | Aramco in-line; market stabilizes; selective buying in oversold sectors |
| Continued consolidation | 35% | 12,050-12,200 | Data-heavy week creates indecision; range-bound trading as market digests information |
| Bearish extension | 15% | 11,900-12,050 | Aramco disappoints on dividend or guidance; oil breaks below $73.50; hot US CPI strengthens dollar and hurts EM sentiment |
Base case: Consolidation remains the most likely path for the week, with the TASI holding the 12,050-12,200 range. Aramco’s earnings are the swing factor — a positive surprise on dividends or guidance could push the index back toward 12,300+, while a disappointment could test the 200-day moving average at 12,050. The 12,050 level is the line in the sand: a close below it would shift the near-term outlook from “consolidation within an uptrend” to “potential correction.”
Bottom Line
The TASI’s pullback last week was mild and orderly, consistent with healthy profit-taking after a strong February. The index remains in a technically constructive position above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the fundamental backdrop — strong banking earnings, Vision 2030 infrastructure spending, and a diversifying economy — remains supportive. Aramco’s Q4 earnings are the event that matters most this week. If the oil giant delivers on dividends and maintains its investment narrative, the consolidation phase should resolve to the upside. Watch the 12,050 support and 12,300 resistance as the goalposts for the week.
This analysis is published by The Middle East Insider for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Stock markets involve risk and past performance does not indicate future results. All data reflects available information as of March 7, 2026.
