A Food Crisis on the Horizon
While global media coverage focuses on oil prices and stock markets following the Iranian strikes on the Gulf, more than 50 million people across GCC nations face a more immediate threat: a sharp rise in food prices.
Gulf states import between 80% and 90% of their food needs, and with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed — the maritime passage through which a significant portion of these imports flow — real questions emerge about the region’s ability to feed its population in the coming weeks.
The Numbers You Need to Know
The Strait of Hormuz is not just an oil corridor. It represents a lifeline for a massive food supply chain:
- The UAE imports 90% of its food, most of it through Jebel Ali Port, which temporarily suspended operations
- Qatar depends on imports for over 85% of its food needs
- Kuwait and Bahrain import more than 90% of their food
- Saudi Arabia is in a relatively better position, with domestic production covering about 40% of needs
Rerouting shipping via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Strait of Hormuz adds 10 to 14 additional days per voyage and raises shipping costs by approximately $1 million per vessel.
What Will Get More Expensive First?
Cooking Oils and Vegetable Fats
Global soybean oil prices have already risen 12% since the crisis began. Gulf states depend almost entirely on imports for cooking oils, making them the first commodities to be affected. Expect a 15-25% increase in retail prices over the next three weeks.
Dairy Products and Cheese
The UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait import the majority of their dairy products from Europe and Oceania. With shipping lanes disrupted and maritime insurance costs surging, milk and dairy products could rise 10-20% in price.
Grains and Rice
Wheat and rice are staple imported commodities. Saudi Arabia has strategic reserves sufficient for several months, but smaller states like Bahrain and Qatar are more vulnerable to supply shortages. Global wheat prices have already risen 8%.
Meat and Poultry
Gulf states import a significant proportion of frozen and live meat. Brazil, India, and Australia are the primary suppliers, and shipping reroutes will impact both prices and availability.
What Are Gulf Governments Doing?
Gulf governments have several tools to address the crisis:
Strategic Reserves
Most Gulf states established strategic food reserves after the lessons of the COVID-19 pandemic. Saudi Arabia, through its Food Security Authority, maintains reserves sufficient for 6-12 months of essential goods. The UAE has also strengthened its strategic stockpiles.
Government Subsidies
Governments are likely to intervene with subsidies on essential goods. Kuwait and Bahrain already have food subsidy systems that can be expanded. The UAE may resort to freezing basic commodity prices, as it has done previously.
Diversifying Import Sources
Gulf states can redirect some imports through alternative ports. The Port of Salalah in Oman lies outside the Strait of Hormuz and could receive additional shipments. Saudi ports on the Red Sea, such as Jeddah Port, offer another route.
Fertilizers: The Coming 2026 Crop Crisis
The less visible but more dangerous threat is the crisis’s impact on fertilizer production. Qatar and Saudi Arabia are among the world’s largest fertilizer exporters, and disruption to their exports could affect global agricultural yields in the second half of 2026.
Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO), which produces more than 5 million tons of urea annually, has suspended operations following the attacks. This will impact global fertilizer prices and, consequently, agricultural production costs worldwide.
Practical Advice for Gulf Consumers
Based on available data, here is what you need to know:
- No need to panic: Strategic reserves are sufficient for several months. There will be no famine.
- Expect price increases: A 10-25% rise in basic food prices within 2-4 weeks is the most likely scenario.
- Local products are less affected: Locally produced vegetables and dairy in Saudi Arabia and the UAE will be less susceptible to price hikes.
- Watch for deals: Major retailers will try to maintain prices as long as possible to retain customer loyalty.
Regional Comparison: Who Is Most Vulnerable?
| Country | Import Dependency | Strategic Reserves | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 92% | 3-4 months | High |
| Bahrain | 90% | 2-3 months | High |
| Qatar | 87% | 4-6 months | Medium-High |
| UAE | 90% | 6+ months | Medium |
| Oman | 60% | 3-4 months | Medium |
| Saudi Arabia | 60% | 6-12 months | Low |
What Comes Next?
The trajectory of food prices in the Gulf depends on two key factors: how long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and how effectively governments can activate alternative supply routes.
If the closure lasts less than two weeks, the impact will be limited and temporary. But if it extends beyond a month, we will see a genuine supply crisis that may require direct government intervention in distributing essential goods.
The most important lesson from this crisis: Gulf states’ investments in food security — from vertical farming in the UAE to wheat projects in Saudi Arabia — are no longer a luxury but a strategic necessity.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will there be a famine in the Gulf?
No. Gulf states possess strategic reserves and massive financial reserves. The real threat is price increases, not a complete supply cutoff.
How long will elevated prices last?
Even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, supply chains will need 4-6 weeks to normalize. Expect elevated prices for at least 2-3 months.
Should I stockpile food?
Purchasing reasonable additional quantities of non-perishable staples (rice, canned goods, oils) is prudent. However, excessive hoarding worsens the problem and drives up prices for everyone.
