Politics. Economics. Markets. — The Authoritative Voice on the Middle East
Key economic indicators for market analysis
| Indicator | What It Tells You | Current Value | Danger Signal | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield Curve | Recession probability via rate expectations |
0.38 %
2Y: 4.05% · 10Y: 4.47%
2026-06-05
|
2yr > 10yr (inverted) | Normal |
| Fed Funds Rate | Cost of money, monetary policy stance |
3.62 % 2026-06-04
|
Rapid hikes (>300bps/yr) | Normal |
| CPI / PCE | Inflation rate (consumer prices) |
3.8 % YoY
PCE: 3.8% YoY
2026-04-01
|
Above 5% sustained | Normal |
| PMI (ISM) | Manufacturing expansion/contraction |
12605 2026-05-01
|
Below 50 = contraction | Normal |
| Unemployment | Labor market health |
4.3 % 2026-05-01
|
Rising 0.5%+ from lows | Normal |
| M2 Money Supply | Total money + liquid deposits |
4.7 % YoY 2026-04-01
|
+27% peak 2021 → inflation | Normal |
| Credit Spreads | Risk appetite (corporate vs Treasury) |
0.74 % 2026-06-04
|
Widening >500bps = panic | Normal |
| Debt/GDP Ratio | Long-term debt sustainability |
122.6 % 2025-10-01
|
Above 100% is concerning | Alert |
| Bank Lending Stds | Are banks tightening credit? |
8.1 % net 2026-04-01
|
Tightening = recession ahead | Normal |
| LEI (Conf Board) | Composite of 10 leading indicators |
99.85 index 2024-01-01
|
6+ months of decline | Normal |