Oil markets enter the final week of March and the first week of April with prices drifting lower, as Brent crude trades in the $71–73 range and WTI sits at $67–69. The dominant narrative has shifted from “wait and see” to “here it comes” — OPEC+ is set to begin its gradual production unwinding in April, adding the first 135,000 barrels per day back to the market. Meanwhile, refinery maintenance season is dampening crude demand in the Atlantic Basin, and China’s latest economic data offers mixed signals at best.

This weekly forecast covers the price recap, supply and demand dynamics, technical levels, and the key dates to watch through April 4.

Current Price Levels

Both benchmarks posted their weakest weekly close in six weeks. Brent fell through the $72 level on Thursday and failed to reclaim it into the Friday close. WTI breached $68 intra-week before recovering marginally. Year-to-date returns are now barely positive, reflecting a market that has gone essentially nowhere since January.

Weekly Price Action Recap

The prior week (Mar 22–28) began with a brief rally on Monday after China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported better-than-expected industrial profits data, pushing Brent to $73.40. However, the momentum faded quickly. Tuesday’s API report showed a US crude inventory build of 4.2 million barrels, and Wednesday’s official EIA data confirmed a build of 3.6 million barrels — the third consecutive weekly increase.

By Thursday, selling pressure intensified as traders positioned for the April OPEC+ production increase. The April Brent futures contract rolled to May, with the front-month contango widening to $0.35 — a subtle but meaningful signal that the market expects more supply than demand in the near term. Friday saw light trading and a marginal recovery as short-covering lifted prices into the close.

OPEC+ April Production Adjustment

The week ahead marks the beginning of OPEC+’s long-anticipated gradual unwinding of voluntary production cuts. This is the single most important supply-side development of Q2 2026.

Key details:

• April increase: 135,000 b/d will be added to group output starting April 1, as confirmed at the February OPEC+ meeting.
• Pace going forward: The unwinding plan is structured as gradual — incremental monthly increases through the end of 2026, with total barrels returned expected to reach 600,000–800,000 b/d by year-end if the schedule holds.
• Saudi Arabia’s position: Saudi Aramco has signaled it will contribute its share of the increase, with output expected to move from ~9.0 mb/d toward 9.2 mb/d by mid-Q2. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s public comments have emphasized that the pace remains “market-dependent.”
• Compliance disputes: Iraq and Kazakhstan remain the problem members. Combined overproduction of 300,000–400,000 b/d in recent months means the effective supply increase is larger than the official 135,000 b/d figure. Saudi Arabia has been pressing both countries to compensate for past overproduction before the group adds new barrels.
• April JMMC meeting: The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting in the first week of April will provide the first official assessment of how the unwinding is affecting market conditions and whether the May increase will proceed as planned.

The market’s concern is not that 135,000 b/d will overwhelm demand — it will not. The concern is directional signaling: once the unwinding begins, reversing it would require a significant market deterioration and a politically difficult about-face from OPEC+ leadership.

Q2 Demand Outlook

Refinery Maintenance Season

Spring turnarounds are peaking across the US Gulf Coast and European refining complexes. An estimated 3.5–4.0 mb/d of global refining capacity is offline for planned maintenance in late March and early April, temporarily reducing crude intake. This seasonal drag typically suppresses spot crude demand and widens contango — both of which are visible in current price action. The maintenance season should ease by mid-April, providing a modest demand tailwind as refineries ramp up for the summer driving season.

China

China’s March PMI data (due March 31) is the most closely watched demand indicator for this week. February manufacturing PMI came in at 50.2 — barely in expansion territory. Crude imports have been running at 11.0–11.3 mb/d, adequate but uninspiring. The government’s latest stimulus measures (targeted rate cuts, infrastructure spending) have not yet translated into a clear demand acceleration. If March PMI disappoints below 50, expect Brent to test the $70 level.

India

India continues to outperform. Crude imports in March are tracking near 5.2 mb/d, up 5% year-over-year. Diesel demand is robust on the back of pre-monsoon agricultural activity and construction. India is the bullish counterweight to China’s ambiguity.

US Inventory Data

The three consecutive weeks of crude inventory builds have pushed stocks above the five-year seasonal average for the first time since November 2025. The build is largely a function of reduced refinery intake during turnarounds rather than a demand collapse, but the headline numbers are weighing on WTI sentiment.

Geopolitical Risk Premium

• Red Sea/Houthi disruptions: Attacks on commercial shipping have decreased in frequency over the past month but have not ceased. Major container lines are partially routing through the Suez Canal again on a selective basis, while tanker operators remain more cautious. The risk premium has compressed to approximately $0.50–1.00/bbl, down from $1–2 earlier in the quarter.
• Iran sanctions: No significant policy changes. Iranian exports are estimated at 1.3–1.5 mb/d, primarily to China. Any tightening remains a potential upside risk to prices.
• Russia-Ukraine: Stable. Russian Urals crude continues to trade at $8–10 discounts to Brent.

Technical Analysis

Brent has broken below its 50-day moving average ($72.50) and is now trading in the bearish zone between support and the 50-day MA. This is a technically weak position. A failure to reclaim $72.50 early in the week would confirm the downside bias and open a path to the $70.50 support level — a floor that has not been tested since January.

WTI is similarly below its 50-day MA ($68.90), with the $66.80 level as the first support zone. The 200-day moving averages for both benchmarks ($74.00 Brent, $70.40 WTI) are now distant overhead resistance, underscoring the bearish shift.

Week-Ahead Outlook

Base case (55% probability): Brent trades $70.50–73.00. WTI holds $66.80–69.00. Prices consolidate at lower levels as the market digests the OPEC+ unwinding and awaits the April JMMC outcome.

Bull case (20%): China PMI surprises above 51, triggering a demand-driven rally. Brent recovers to $73.50–74.50, reclaiming the 50-day MA. WTI moves to $69.50–70.80.

Bear case (25%): Weak China PMI (below 50) combined with a fourth consecutive US crude build pushes Brent to $69–70 and WTI toward $65.50. OPEC+ unwinding narrative amplifies selling.

Key Dates to Watch

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the oil price forecast for this week (Mar 29 – Apr 4, 2026)?

The base case is for Brent crude to trade in a $70.50–73.00 range and WTI to hold between $66.80 and $69.00. Prices are expected to consolidate at lower levels as the OPEC+ production unwinding begins in April and refinery maintenance season suppresses demand.

Why are oil prices falling?

Oil prices have dipped to their lowest levels in six weeks due to a combination of factors: three consecutive weeks of US crude inventory builds, the approaching OPEC+ production increase (135,000 b/d starting April), reduced crude demand from refinery maintenance, and unconvincing demand signals from China. The geopolitical risk premium from Red Sea disruptions has also compressed.

What is OPEC+ doing in April 2026?

OPEC+ is beginning its gradual unwinding of voluntary production cuts in April, adding 135,000 b/d to group output. This is the first step in a phased plan to return 600,000–800,000 b/d by year-end. The pace is subject to review at the April JMMC meeting and may be adjusted based on market conditions.

How does China affect oil prices this week?

China’s March manufacturing PMI, due March 31, is the most important demand-side data point for the week. China imports approximately 11 mb/d of crude. A reading above 50.5 would signal improving industrial activity and support oil prices. A reading below 50 would indicate manufacturing contraction and likely push Brent toward the $70 support level.

What are the key support and resistance levels for Brent crude?

Brent’s immediate support is at $70.50, with stronger support at $69.00 — a level that has served as a floor since late 2025. Resistance sits at $73.00 (near the 50-day moving average at $72.50) and $74.50. The price is currently below the 50-day MA, a technically bearish signal.

Key Takeaways

• Brent crude closed at $71.85 and WTI at $68.10, both at six-week lows, as the market positions for OPEC+ supply additions and digests weak US inventory data.
• OPEC+ begins adding 135,000 b/d in April, the first step in a gradual unwinding of voluntary cuts — the most important supply-side shift of 2026 so far.
• Three consecutive weeks of US crude inventory builds have pushed stocks above the five-year seasonal average, with refinery maintenance season reducing throughput to 85.2% utilization.
• China’s March PMI (due March 31) is the key swing factor — a reading below 50 could push Brent toward $70, while a reading above 50.5 would provide demand-side support.
• Technical indicators have turned bearish, with Brent trading below its 50-day moving average for the first time since January. The $70.50 support level is critical to hold.
• India remains the lone bright spot on the demand side, with crude imports running at 5.2 mb/d, up 5% year-over-year.

For deeper context on oil market dynamics, read our guides to What Is OPEC?, OPEC and Oil Prices, and Saudi Aramco Explained.