The Paradox of Egyptian Gold: A Metal That Defies Every Economic Rule the Textbooks Taught You

In any rational economic model, when a currency loses over 60% of its value in three years, when inflation hovers stubbornly in double digits, when interest rates are among the highest in the world, people should be fleeing to cash deposits and fixed-income instruments. Yet in Egypt, something entirely different has happened. Millions of ordinary Egyptians, from Cairo taxi drivers to Alexandria shopkeepers to Upper Egypt farmers, have been doing the exact opposite of what Western economics prescribes: they have been pouring every spare pound into gold. And they have been spectacularly, almost embarrassingly, right.

This is the paradox that defines the Egyptian gold market in 2026. The metal that financial advisors in New York and London treat as a peripheral hedge, a “nice to have” allocation of 5-10% of a portfolio, has become the single most important financial instrument for over 100 million Egyptians. It is their savings account, their inflation hedge, their currency insurance, and their generational wealth transfer vehicle, all wrapped in a gleaming yellow package that fits in the palm of your hand.

The numbers tell a story that no economic textbook anticipated. Gold priced at approximately $100 per gram globally (with the international price hovering near $3,100 per ounce in early April 2026) translates into a dramatically different reality when converted to Egyptian pounds. And it is this conversion, this intersection of global commodity pricing and local currency dynamics, that creates both the opportunity and the trap that every Egyptian gold buyer must understand.

Understanding Gold Pricing in Egypt: The Dual Engine

Before diving into specific prices and forecasts, every Egyptian gold buyer must understand the dual engine that drives local gold prices. Unlike markets in the UAE or Saudi Arabia where the currency is pegged to the dollar, Egypt operates with a (now mostly) floating exchange rate, which means gold prices in Egyptian pounds are driven by two independent forces that can amplify or dampen each other.

The first engine is the international gold price, denominated in US dollars per ounce. As of early April 2026, this sits at approximately $3,050-3,150 per ounce, or roughly $98-101 per gram for pure 24-karat gold. This price is influenced by global factors: Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases (particularly from China, India, and several Middle Eastern central banks), and global inflation expectations.

The second engine is the USD/EGP exchange rate. After the dramatic devaluations of 2022-2024, the Egyptian pound has settled into a more stable range during 2025-2026, trading at approximately 49-51 EGP per dollar. However, this stability is relative. Any shift in the exchange rate immediately impacts the local gold price, even if the international price remains unchanged.

When both engines fire simultaneously, as they did through much of 2023-2024, gold prices in Egyptian pounds can surge dramatically. When they move in opposite directions, they can partially offset each other, creating windows of relative price stability that savvy buyers can exploit.

To put concrete numbers on this: at an international gold price of $100/gram and an exchange rate of 50 EGP/USD, the base price of one gram of 24-karat gold in Egypt would be approximately 5,000 EGP before any local premiums or taxes are added.

Current Gold Prices by Karat: April 2026 Breakdown

Egypt has a unique relationship with gold karats that differs significantly from Gulf countries or Western markets. Understanding the karat system is essential for any buyer, whether purchasing for investment or jewelry.

24-Karat Gold (عيار 24)

Pure gold at 99.9% purity. In April 2026, 24-karat gold trades at approximately 4,900-5,100 EGP per gram in the Egyptian market. This karat is primarily used for:

• Gold bars (سبائك): Available in sizes from 1 gram to 1 kilogram, these are the preferred investment vehicle for serious gold investors. Banks and certified dealers sell them with certificates of authenticity.
• Gold pounds (جنيهات ذهبية): Egypt’s iconic gold coins, each weighing 8 grams, trade at approximately 40,000-41,000 EGP. These carry a slight premium over the raw gold value due to their recognizability and liquidity.
• International coins: Sovereigns, Krugerrands, and other international gold coins are also available through specialized dealers in Cairo’s gold district.

21-Karat Gold (عيار 21) — Egypt’s Favorite

Containing 87.5% pure gold, 21-karat is by far the most popular gold standard in Egypt. In April 2026, the price sits at approximately 4,200-4,500 EGP per gram before مصنعية (craftsmanship fees). This is the gold that most Egyptian families buy for:

• Wedding jewelry (شبكة): The traditional bridal gold set, which can range from 50 grams to over 200 grams depending on family means and regional customs.
• Savings jewelry: Simple bangles, chains, and coins that families buy as a form of savings, intended to be sold when cash is needed.
• Gifts: Gold remains the default gift for births, graduations, and religious celebrations.

The popularity of 21-karat gold in Egypt has a practical basis: it is hard enough to withstand daily wear (pure gold is too soft), retains a high gold content for investment value, and has deep cultural roots dating back to pharaonic times. When Egyptians say “ذهب” (gold), they almost always mean 21-karat.

18-Karat Gold (عيار 18)

At 75% purity, 18-karat gold trades at approximately 3,700-3,900 EGP per gram in April 2026. This karat is common in:

• Designer jewelry: High-end brands and modern designs often use 18K because it allows for more complex metalwork and stone settings.
• Imported jewelry: Many Italian and international jewelry brands work primarily in 18K.
• White gold and rose gold: These alloy variations are almost always 18K.

While 18-karat has its place in the jewelry world, it is generally not recommended for investment purposes in Egypt due to higher مصنعية relative to gold content and lower resale demand compared to 21-karat.

Gold Price Comparison Table: April 2026

The following table summarizes the approximate retail prices per gram across all major karats in the Egyptian market:

Note: Prices exclude مصنعية (craftsmanship fees) which can add 10-30% for jewelry items. Bars and coins have minimal or no مصنعية.

The USD/EGP Factor: How Currency Moves Reshape Gold Prices

No analysis of gold prices in Egypt is complete without a deep dive into the currency dynamics that amplify every move in the international gold market. The Egyptian pound’s journey over the past four years has been nothing short of dramatic, and its trajectory through 2026 will be the single most important variable for local gold prices.

Let us trace the timeline. In early 2022, the Egyptian pound traded at approximately 15.7 EGP per dollar. By March 2024, after a series of devaluations, it had fallen to over 49 EGP per dollar, a depreciation of more than 200%. During 2025, the pound found a degree of stability, trading in a range of 48-51 EGP per dollar, supported by the Ras El-Hekma deal, increased Suez Canal revenues (as Red Sea shipping routes partially normalized), and continued IMF program disbursements.

As of April 2026, the pound trades at approximately 49.5-50.5 EGP per dollar in the official market. The parallel market premium, which had ballooned to over 70% during the crisis period, has largely collapsed to under 3%, reflecting genuine progress in exchange rate unification.

But stability is not permanence. Several factors could push the pound weaker through Q2 2026:

• Import demand surge: As the economy recovers, import demand for raw materials and consumer goods increases, putting pressure on dollar reserves.
• Hot money flows: Egypt has attracted significant carry-trade investments due to high interest rates (27.25% as of early 2026). Any shift in global risk appetite could trigger outflows.
• Debt service: Egypt’s external debt service obligations remain substantial, requiring continuous dollar outflows.
• Suez Canal uncertainty: While revenues have partially recovered from the Houthi crisis lows, they remain below pre-2023 levels, representing a structural dollar revenue gap.

Conversely, several factors support the pound:

• Remittances: Egyptian expatriate remittances, particularly from the Gulf, remain strong at over $25 billion annually.
• Ras El-Hekma and tourism: The $35 billion Ras El-Hekma deal continues to provide dollar inflows, and tourism receipts have surpassed $15 billion annually.
• IMF program: Continued adherence to the IMF program provides a credibility anchor for the currency.
• Natural gas: Egypt’s domestic gas production helps reduce energy import bills.

For gold buyers, the practical implication is this: if you believe the pound will weaken further, gold becomes an even more attractive hedge. Every 1% depreciation in the pound against the dollar automatically adds approximately 1% to the gold price in EGP, even if the global price stays flat. This currency multiplier effect is what has made gold such a powerful wealth preservation tool for Egyptians over the past four years.

Q2 2026 Gold Price Forecast: Three Scenarios

Forecasting gold prices in Egypt requires modeling both the international gold price and the USD/EGP exchange rate. Here are three scenarios for Q2 2026 (April through June):

Scenario 1: Bull Case — Gold Soars, Pound Slips

In this scenario, international gold breaks above $3,200/oz ($103/gram) driven by escalating geopolitical tensions (Middle East, Ukraine, or Taiwan), aggressive central bank buying, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Simultaneously, the Egyptian pound weakens to 52-53 EGP/USD due to hot money outflows or import pressure.

21K Gold Price: 4,700-5,000 EGP/gram
24K Gold Price: 5,400-5,700 EGP/gram
Probability: 25%

Scenario 2: Base Case — Steady Climb

International gold trades in the $3,050-3,200/oz range ($98-103/gram), supported by central bank demand and moderate risk appetite. The Egyptian pound remains relatively stable at 49-51 EGP/USD, with the Central Bank of Egypt maintaining its tight monetary policy.

21K Gold Price: 4,300-4,600 EGP/gram
24K Gold Price: 4,900-5,200 EGP/gram
Probability: 55%

Scenario 3: Bear Case — Correction and Consolidation

International gold corrects to $2,850-2,950/oz ($92-95/gram) due to stronger-than-expected US economic data, reduced geopolitical risk premiums, or profit-taking after gold’s massive 2024-2025 rally. The Egyptian pound holds steady or even strengthens slightly to 48-49 EGP/USD.

21K Gold Price: 3,900-4,200 EGP/gram
24K Gold Price: 4,400-4,800 EGP/gram
Probability: 20%

Scenario Summary Table

What is Driving Global Gold Prices in 2026?

To understand where Egyptian gold prices are heading, you must understand the global forces pushing gold to near-record levels. The gold market in 2026 is shaped by several intersecting mega-trends that show no signs of reversing.

Central Bank Buying Frenzy

The most powerful structural force behind gold’s rise has been the unprecedented buying spree by central banks worldwide. According to the World Gold Council, central banks have purchased over 1,000 tonnes of gold annually for three consecutive years (2023-2025), shattering all historical records. China, India, Poland, Turkey, and several Middle Eastern nations have been the most aggressive buyers.

This buying is driven by a desire to diversify reserves away from US dollar assets, particularly after the freezing of Russian central bank reserves in 2022 demonstrated the weaponization risk of dollar holdings. The Central Bank of Egypt itself has been quietly adding to its gold reserves, which now stand at approximately 130 tonnes.

Geopolitical Risk Premium

The gold price in 2026 carries a substantial geopolitical risk premium. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and rising US-China friction over Taiwan all contribute to a baseline of uncertainty that supports gold as a safe haven. For Egyptian buyers, the regional dimension is particularly relevant: any escalation in the Gaza situation, Red Sea tensions, or broader Middle Eastern conflict directly impacts both gold demand and the Egyptian pound.

US Interest Rates and the Dollar

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory is crucial for gold. After holding rates at elevated levels through much of 2025, the market expects gradual cuts through 2026, which would typically weaken the dollar and support gold prices. However, persistent inflation in the US could delay these cuts, creating headwinds for gold. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance remains the most-watched global variable for gold traders.

De-Dollarization Trend

The broader de-dollarization movement, led by BRICS nations and supported by many Global South countries, continues to create structural demand for gold as an alternative reserve asset. While the dollar remains dominant in global trade, the trend toward diversification is real and measurable, and it directly benefits gold.

Egypt’s Gold Market Structure: Where and How Egyptians Buy

The Egyptian gold market has a unique structure that blends ancient tradition with modern regulation. Understanding this structure is essential for getting the best prices and avoiding common pitfalls.

The Sagha (الصاغة) — Cairo’s Gold District

The Sagha, located in the historic Khan El-Khalili area of Islamic Cairo, has been the beating heart of Egypt’s gold trade for centuries. Hundreds of small and medium-sized gold shops line its narrow streets, offering everything from simple 21K bangles to elaborate bridal sets. Prices here are generally competitive because of the intense competition, but buyers must be savvy about مصنعية negotiations and should always verify the gold stamp (دمغة).

Chain Retailers

Modern gold retail chains like L’azurde, Damas, and Azza Fahmy operate in shopping malls across Egypt. They offer certified quality and fixed pricing, but their مصنعية tends to be significantly higher than Sagha dealers due to branding, retail overhead, and design premiums.

Banks

Egyptian banks, particularly the National Bank of Egypt (NBE) and Banque Misr, sell gold bars in various sizes. Bank-purchased gold comes with certificates of authenticity and is the most secure option for large investments. Some banks also offer gold savings accounts and certificates.

Gold Exchanges and Online Platforms

Egypt has been modernizing its gold trading infrastructure. The Egyptian Gold Exchange, launched in recent years, provides a more transparent and regulated trading environment. Online gold dealers have also emerged, though they are still a small fraction of the market.

Tips for Egyptian Gold Buyers

• Always check the دمغة (hallmark stamp): Every piece of gold sold in Egypt should carry a stamp from the Egyptian Assay Office indicating the karat.
• Negotiate the مصنعية: Craftsmanship fees are negotiable, especially in the Sagha. For simple investment pieces (plain bangles, chains), مصنعية should be 5-15% maximum.
• Get a detailed invoice: The invoice should list the weight, karat, gold price per gram, and مصنعية separately.
• Buy from الملتزمين (registered dealers): Registered dealers who pay taxes and carry proper documentation offer better consumer protection.
• Consider timing: Gold prices in Egypt can fluctuate by 50-100 EGP per gram within a single week. Patient buyers who monitor prices can save significantly.

Investment Strategy: Gold as an Egyptian Portfolio Cornerstone

For Egyptian investors navigating the complex economic landscape of 2026, gold plays a role that goes far beyond what Western portfolio theory would suggest. Here is a framework for thinking about gold allocation in an Egyptian context.

The Case for Overweighting Gold in Egypt

Standard Western portfolio advice suggests a 5-10% gold allocation. For Egyptian investors, a significantly higher allocation of 20-35% may be justified for several reasons:

• Currency hedge: Gold provides direct protection against EGP depreciation, which has been the dominant wealth destruction force for Egyptian savers.
• Limited alternatives: The Egyptian stock market (EGX) is relatively small and volatile. Real estate, while popular, is illiquid and requires large capital outlays. Gold provides liquidity that other Egyptian assets cannot match.
• Cultural liquidity: Gold is universally understood and accepted in Egypt. It can be bought and sold at thousands of locations nationwide, even in small villages.
• No counterparty risk: Unlike bank deposits (which carry devaluation risk) or government bonds (which carry inflation risk), physical gold has no counterparty risk.

Gold vs. Egyptian Certificates of Deposit

One of the key investment debates in Egypt in 2026 is gold versus high-yield bank certificates. With the Central Bank of Egypt maintaining its overnight lending rate at 27.25%, banks offer certificates with yields of 22-27%. On the surface, these returns look attractive. But the comparison must account for currency depreciation and inflation.

Consider this: if the pound depreciates by 10% over a year and inflation runs at 15%, a 25% certificate yield delivers a real return of approximately zero. Gold, meanwhile, benefits from both global price appreciation AND currency depreciation, potentially delivering real returns of 20-40% in EGP terms.

The mathematical reality is stark: in an environment of currency depreciation and high inflation, fixed-income instruments denominated in the depreciating currency are a slow-motion wealth transfer from savers to borrowers. Gold breaks this cycle by being denominated in a global currency (effectively the dollar) while being physically held in Egypt.

Recommended Gold Allocation by Investor Profile

Historical Gold Prices in Egypt: Learning from the Past

Understanding where gold prices have been is essential for calibrating expectations about where they are going. The Egyptian gold market has experienced several distinct phases in the past decade.

2020-2022: The Calm Before the Storm

In early 2020, 21K gold traded at approximately 700-750 EGP per gram, with the pound stable at 15.7 per dollar. The COVID-19 pandemic pushed international gold prices above $2,000/oz for the first time, briefly pushing 21K prices above 900 EGP/gram. But with the pound still stable, these increases were modest compared to what was coming.

2022-2023: The Great Devaluation Era

The period from March 2022 to early 2024 was the most dramatic in modern Egyptian gold history. Three successive devaluations of the pound (March 2022, October 2022, January 2023, followed by the managed float in March 2024) sent gold prices in EGP into the stratosphere. A gram of 21K gold went from approximately 850 EGP in February 2022 to over 3,000 EGP by early 2024, a tripling in less than two years.

This period taught millions of Egyptians a harsh lesson: holding savings in Egyptian pounds during a devaluation cycle is financially devastating, while holding gold preserves and even grows purchasing power.

2024-2025: Stabilization and New Plateau

After the March 2024 devaluation and the Ras El-Hekma deal, the Egyptian economy entered a period of relative stabilization. Gold prices in EGP continued to climb but at a more measured pace, driven primarily by the ongoing global gold rally rather than currency depreciation. By the end of 2025, 21K gold had reached approximately 4,000-4,200 EGP/gram.

Key Price Milestones (21K Gold in EGP/gram)

Risks and Warnings: What Could Go Wrong for Gold in Egypt

While the bull case for gold in Egypt is compelling, prudent investors must consider the risks and potential downsides.

Risk 1: Global Gold Price Correction

Gold has risen dramatically over the past two years, from approximately $2,000/oz to over $3,100/oz. A correction of 10-15% is not only possible but historically normal after such rallies. If international gold drops to $2,600-2,700/oz while the pound remains stable, Egyptian gold prices would fall accordingly, potentially catching late buyers off-guard.

Risk 2: Egyptian Pound Strengthening

If Egypt’s economic reforms succeed beyond expectations, if Suez Canal revenues fully recover, and if foreign direct investment surges, the pound could strengthen toward 45-47 EGP/USD. This would push local gold prices lower even if international prices hold steady.

Risk 3: Government Policy Changes

The Egyptian government has periodically imposed import restrictions or taxes on gold to manage capital flows. Any new regulations, such as a gold import duty, a capital gains tax on gold sales, or restrictions on gold purchases, could impact the market dynamics.

Risk 4: Counterfeit and Quality Issues

Despite regulation, the Egyptian gold market still faces quality issues. Counterfeit stamps, underkarating (selling 19K as 21K), and manipulation of scales are risks, particularly when buying from unregistered dealers. Always insist on purchasing from registered dealers with proper documentation.

Risk 5: Storage and Security

Physical gold requires secure storage. Home safes can be broken into, and Egypt does not yet have widespread gold custodial services comparable to those in the Gulf. The risk of theft or loss is real and must be factored into any physical gold investment strategy.

Tax Implications of Gold Investment in Egypt

Egypt’s tax treatment of gold has evolved in recent years and is an important consideration for investors.

VAT on Gold: In Egypt, gold bars and coins are exempt from Value Added Tax (VAT), making them the most tax-efficient form of gold investment. However, gold jewelry is subject to VAT on the مصنعية portion only, not on the gold content itself. This means the tax impact on jewelry purchases is relatively modest.

Capital Gains: As of 2026, Egypt does not impose a specific capital gains tax on the sale of physical gold by individuals. However, this could change, and investors should stay informed about any proposed tax legislation.

Import Duties: Gold imported into Egypt by travelers has specific duty exemptions (up to a certain weight) and rules that change periodically. The recent “gold initiative” allowing Egyptians returning from abroad to bring gold with reduced duties has been popular but is subject to periodic policy changes.

Digital Gold and Gold ETFs in Egypt: The New Frontier

While physical gold dominates the Egyptian market, digital alternatives are gaining traction among younger and more tech-savvy investors.

The Egyptian Gold ETF, listed on the Egyptian Exchange (EGX), provides exposure to gold prices without the need to store physical metal. While still small compared to international gold ETFs, it has seen growing interest from local investors who appreciate the convenience and security of electronic ownership.

Several fintech platforms now allow Egyptians to buy fractional gold, starting from as little as 100 EGP. These platforms typically back their digital gold with physical reserves stored in certified vaults. While convenient, investors should verify the platform’s regulatory status and physical backing before committing significant funds.

Gold savings plans offered by some Egyptian banks allow customers to make regular monthly gold purchases, effectively implementing a dollar-cost averaging strategy. These plans can be an excellent option for salaried employees who want systematic gold exposure without the hassle of visiting dealers.

Regional Comparison: Egypt Gold Prices vs. Gulf Countries

Egyptian gold prices often differ from those in Gulf countries due to the currency factor and local market dynamics. Here is how Egypt compares:

The slight premium in Egypt reflects local supply-demand dynamics and the costs associated with importing gold into the country. During periods of high demand (wedding season, economic uncertainty), this premium can expand to 5-7%.

Many Egyptian expatriates in the Gulf take advantage of lower Gulf prices by purchasing gold during visits home or through travelers. The gold import rules for returning Egyptians (the “gold initiative” mentioned above) have made this practice more accessible, though it is still subject to regulations and weight limits.

Expert Opinions: What Analysts Are Saying About Gold in Egypt

Market analysts and gold experts have shared varying perspectives on where gold prices in Egypt are heading through the remainder of 2026.

Egyptian Banking Institute analysts suggest that gold in EGP terms will continue to appreciate as long as global prices remain above $3,000/oz and the pound doesn’t materially strengthen. Their base case target for 21K gold is 4,500-4,800 EGP/gram by end of 2026.

Gold industry sources in the Sagha report that demand remains robust, particularly from wedding-related purchases (which account for an estimated 40-50% of retail gold sales in Egypt). They note that buyers have become more sophisticated, increasingly opting for bars and coins over jewelry for investment purposes.

International perspective: Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan have both maintained bullish gold targets for 2026, with price targets in the $3,200-3,500/oz range. If achieved, and if the pound holds at 50 EGP/USD, this would translate to 21K prices of 4,500-4,900 EGP/gram.

According to analysis published by the World Gold Council’s research hub, emerging market gold demand remains structurally elevated, driven by both central bank purchases and retail demand from countries like Egypt, India, and Turkey where gold serves as a primary savings vehicle.

Practical Guide: How to Start Investing in Gold in Egypt Today

For readers who are convinced by the case for gold and want to begin building a position, here is a practical step-by-step guide.

Step 1: Define Your Objective

Are you buying gold for long-term savings (5+ years), medium-term protection against a specific risk (pound depreciation), or short-term trading? Your objective determines the form of gold you should buy and your target allocation.

Step 2: Choose Your Gold Form

• For pure investment: Gold bars (1g, 5g, 10g, 20g, 50g, 100g, 1kg) or gold pounds. These carry minimal مصنعية and are the most liquid investment form.
• For dual-purpose (investment + wearability): Simple 21K pieces with low مصنعية (plain bangles, thick chains, or coin-mounted jewelry).
• For digital convenience: The Egyptian Gold ETF on EGX or a regulated fintech gold platform.

Step 3: Set a Budget and Schedule

Determine how much you can allocate to gold monthly. Even 500-1,000 EGP per month, invested consistently, can build a meaningful gold position over time. Many dealers sell small bars (1-5 grams) that are accessible at current prices.

Step 4: Choose Your Dealer

For physical gold, use registered dealers with hallmarked products. For bars, banks are the most secure option. For jewelry, establish a relationship with a reputable Sagha dealer who offers competitive مصنعية rates.

Step 5: Secure Storage

Invest in a quality home safe (bolted to the floor or wall), rent a bank safe deposit box, or use a gold custodial service if available. Never store all your gold in one location.

Step 6: Monitor and Rebalance

Track the international gold price, the USD/EGP rate, and your overall gold allocation as a percentage of your total savings. If gold appreciates significantly and becomes overweighted in your portfolio, consider selling some to rebalance into other assets.

The Bigger Picture: Gold, Egypt, and the Global Economic Order

Stepping back from the daily price fluctuations, the story of gold in Egypt in 2026 is really a story about trust, specifically the eroding trust in fiat currencies and the enduring trust in a metal that has served as money for 5,000 years.

Egypt sits at a unique intersection of these global trends. It is a country with one of the world’s oldest gold-working traditions (pharaonic gold artifacts are among the earliest known), a population that culturally understands and values gold, and an economic environment that has painfully demonstrated the risks of fiat currency savings. This combination makes Egypt one of the world’s most gold-responsive economies.

The global trends supporting gold, including central bank buying, de-dollarization, geopolitical uncertainty, and the weaponization of the financial system, are all structural rather than cyclical. They are unlikely to reverse in the foreseeable future. This suggests that the current gold bull market, which has taken prices from $1,800 to over $3,100 in just four years, may have further to run.

For Egyptian savers and investors, the message is clear: gold is not just a commodity to trade or a piece of jewelry to wear. It is a financial survival tool in an era of currency volatility, a bridge between the uncertain present and a more stable future. Whether gold reaches 5,000 or 6,000 EGP per gram for 21K by the end of 2026 is ultimately less important than the principle it represents: the preservation of purchasing power across generations, denominated in something more enduring than any government’s promises.

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