The Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) enters the week of March 22–28 trading in the 12,400–12,700 range, reflecting a market that is digesting mixed signals from oil prices, banking sector earnings revisions, and shifting foreign investor appetite. After a modestly positive prior week, the Saudi stock market faces a series of data releases and technical tests that will likely determine whether the index breaks higher toward 13,000 or pulls back to test support near 12,200.
This weekly outlook covers index performance, sector analysis, Aramco stock dynamics, foreign flows, and the key levels to watch.
Weekly Performance Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| TASI Close (Mar 21) | 12,582 |
| Weekly Change | +0.6% (+72 points) |
| 2026 YTD Performance | +3.8% |
| Weekly Trading Volume | SAR 28.4 billion |
| Market Capitalization | ~SAR 10.6 trillion |
TASI posted a modest gain for the week ending March 21, supported by banking sector strength and a recovery in petrochemical names following stabilization in oil prices. Daily volumes averaged SAR 5.7 billion, slightly above the 30-day average of SAR 5.3 billion, suggesting improving participation.
The index opened the prior week near 12,510, dipped to a low of 12,430 on Tuesday, and rallied through Thursday to reach 12,620 before a slight pullback into the Friday close at 12,582.
Top Movers (Week Ending Mar 21)
Top Gainers
| Stock | Sector | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Awwal Bank (SAB) | Banking | +3.2% |
| Maaden (Saudi Arabian Mining) | Materials | +2.8% |
| Elm Company | Technology | +2.5% |
| Bupa Arabia | Insurance | +2.3% |
| SABIC Agri-Nutrients | Materials | +2.1% |
Top Decliners
| Stock | Sector | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jarir Marketing | Retail | -2.4% |
| Saudi Telecom (STC) | Telecom | -1.8% |
| Riyad Bank | Banking | -1.5% |
| Yanbu National Petrochemical (Yansab) | Petrochemicals | -1.3% |
| Saudi Kayan | Petrochemicals | -1.1% |
Sector Breakdown
Banking
The banking sector led the market during the prior week, with the Tadawul Banks Index up 1.4%. Saudi Awwal Bank (SAB) was the standout performer after an analyst upgrade citing improved net interest margins amid stable policy rates. Al Rajhi Bank, the index’s largest banking constituent by weight, rose 0.9% and remains a bellwether for TASI direction.
Key factors for the week ahead:
– Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) credit growth data for February is due and will signal lending momentum.
– Consensus expects the banking sector to deliver 8–10% earnings growth in Q1 2026, but any downward revision could trigger profit-taking.
– The sector trades at approximately 12.5x forward earnings, in line with its five-year average.
Petrochemicals
The petrochemicals sector was mixed, reflecting the sideways action in oil and feedstock prices. SABIC, the sector heavyweight, was flat for the week at SAR 72.50 as investors awaited Q1 guidance. SABIC Agri-Nutrients rose on tightening global fertilizer supply, while Saudi Kayan and Yansab declined on margin compression concerns tied to elevated naphtha costs.
Petrochemical sector performance this week will track:
– Crude oil direction (Brent $72–74 range provides neutral backdrop)
– Asian polymer pricing data
– Any forward guidance from SABIC management ahead of Q1 results
Materials
Maaden (Saudi Arabian Mining Company) posted a strong week, up 2.8%, on improving gold and base metal prices. Gold traded above $3,050/oz, supporting Maaden’s gold mining division. The company’s phosphate and aluminum segments also benefit from sustained construction demand tied to Saudi giga projects — a structural tailwind for the materials sector within the Saudi economy.
Technology and Telecoms
Technology names were mixed. Elm Company continued its uptrend, gaining 2.5% on institutional buying ahead of its inclusion in an MSCI index rebalancing. STC, however, lost 1.8% after a broker downgrade citing limited near-term catalysts and elevated valuation at 18x forward earnings.
Aramco Stock Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Saudi Aramco (2222.SR) Close | SAR 28.60 |
| Weekly Change | +0.4% |
| 2026 YTD | +1.8% |
| Market Cap | SAR 6.9 trillion (~$1.84 trillion) |
| Dividend Yield (TTM) | ~6.3% |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | ~14.8x |
Saudi Aramco traded in a tight range between SAR 28.30 and SAR 28.80, reflecting oil price stability. As the single largest constituent of TASI (accounting for roughly 12% of index weight), Aramco’s range-bound trading contributed to the index’s overall consolidation.
Key watch items for Aramco this week:
– Oil price direction — a break above $74.50 in Brent would likely push Aramco toward SAR 29.00+.
– Q1 2026 production guidance in context of OPEC+ unwinding plans.
– Aramco’s dividend sustainability remains the primary draw for institutional and retail investors. The base dividend of $19.5 billion per quarter ($78 billion annually) is fully covered at current oil prices, though the performance-linked dividend tranche depends on free cash flow.
Foreign Investor Flows
| Flow Type | Weekly (Mar 15–21) | 2026 YTD |
|---|---|---|
| Qualified Foreign Investor (QFI) Net | -SAR 320 million | +SAR 1.8 billion |
| Swap/P-Notes Net | +SAR 180 million | +SAR 640 million |
| Total Foreign Net | -SAR 140 million | +SAR 2.44 billion |
Foreign investors were modest net sellers during the prior week, with QFI outflows of SAR 320 million partially offset by SAR 180 million in swap-based inflows. The net outflow of SAR 140 million was the first negative weekly reading in three weeks, though it remains small relative to daily market turnover.
Year-to-date, foreign flows remain positive at SAR 2.44 billion, reflecting ongoing inclusion benefits from MSCI and FTSE index weightings. The next MSCI rebalancing in May could trigger additional passive inflows if Saudi weights are increased.
Key Economic Data Releases
| Date | Event | Relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 23 (Sun) | SAMA weekly reserve assets data | Banking sector liquidity indicator |
| Mar 24 (Mon) | Flash PMI (global) | Risk sentiment for petrochemicals |
| Mar 25 (Tue) | Saudi consumer confidence index | Retail and consumer sector outlook |
| Mar 26 (Wed) | EIA oil inventory data | Aramco and energy sector sentiment |
| Mar 27 (Thu) | SAMA February credit growth data | Banking sector lending momentum |
Support and Resistance Levels
| Level | TASI Points |
|---|---|
| Resistance 2 | 13,000 |
| Resistance 1 | 12,750 |
| Current Level | 12,582 |
| Support 1 | 12,400 |
| Support 2 | 12,200 |
| 50-Day MA | 12,490 |
| 200-Day MA | 12,320 |
TASI is trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a technically bullish configuration. However, the index has failed to break above 12,750 on two occasions in March, establishing this as the near-term ceiling.
A close above 12,750 would open a path toward the psychologically important 13,000 level, last seen in November 2025. Conversely, a break below 12,400 would test the 50-day moving average at 12,490 (already a near-term marker) and potentially the 200-day MA at 12,320.
Week-Ahead Outlook
| Factor | Direction | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Banking sector momentum | Bullish | Earnings expectations and stable rates support |
| Oil price consolidation | Neutral | Range-bound oil limits Aramco upside |
| Foreign investor flows | Neutral-Bearish | Modest net selling if QFI outflows continue |
| SAMA credit growth data | Potentially Bullish | Strong lending data would boost bank stocks |
| Global risk sentiment | Neutral | PMI data will set the tone early in the week |
| Technical setup | Bullish (above MAs) | Need 12,750 breakout for confirmation |
Base case (55% probability): TASI trades in the 12,450–12,750 range. Consolidation continues with banking names providing support. Volume remains near average levels.
Bull case (25%): Strong SAMA credit data and improving global PMIs push TASI above 12,750, targeting 12,900–13,000. Banking sector leads, with Al Rajhi and SNB breaking to new highs.
Bear case (20%): Weak credit data, continued foreign selling, or a break below $71.50 in Brent pulls TASI toward 12,200–12,400 support. Petrochemical and energy names would lead the decline.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the TASI index level this week?
As of March 21, 2026, the TASI index closed at 12,582, up 0.6% for the week. The index is trading in a 12,400–12,700 range and is up 3.8% year-to-date.
What sectors are driving the Saudi stock market in March 2026?
Banking is the strongest sector, with Saudi Awwal Bank and Al Rajhi Bank leading gains on stable net interest margins and positive earnings expectations. Materials (Maaden) are also performing well on higher gold prices. Petrochemicals are mixed due to range-bound oil prices and margin pressures.
How is Saudi Aramco stock performing?
Saudi Aramco (2222.SR) closed at SAR 28.60, up 0.4% for the week and 1.8% year-to-date. The stock trades at approximately 14.8x trailing earnings with a dividend yield of 6.3%. Aramco’s tight trading range reflects the consolidation in global oil prices.
Are foreign investors buying Saudi stocks?
Foreign investors were modest net sellers in the week ending March 21, with total net outflows of SAR 140 million. Year-to-date, foreign flows remain positive at SAR 2.44 billion, supported by passive inflows from MSCI and FTSE index inclusion.
What are the key support and resistance levels for TASI?
Immediate support is at 12,400 with secondary support at 12,200 (near the 200-day moving average at 12,320). Resistance is at 12,750, which has capped rallies twice in March. A breakout above 12,750 would target the 13,000 level.
Key Takeaways
- TASI closed the prior week at 12,582, up 0.6%, and is trading in a 12,400–12,700 consolidation range above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
- Banking sector strength is the primary tailwind, with Al Rajhi Bank and SAB leading. SAMA credit growth data due March 27 is the key catalyst for the sector this week.
- Saudi Aramco remains range-bound at SAR 28.60 with a 6.3% dividend yield, tracking sideways oil prices. A Brent breakout above $74.50 would be needed to push Aramco meaningfully higher.
- Foreign investors posted a modest net outflow of SAR 140 million last week, but year-to-date flows remain positive at SAR 2.44 billion with potential MSCI rebalancing inflows in May.
- The 12,750 level is the key resistance to watch — a close above it would signal bullish momentum toward 13,000. Support at 12,400 must hold to maintain the current technical structure.
- Petrochemical sector performance hinges on oil prices and Asian polymer demand, while materials (Maaden) benefit from elevated gold prices and domestic construction demand.
For broader market context, read our guides to Middle East Stock Markets, the Saudi Arabia Economy, and Saudi Aramco Explained.
