Oil markets enter the second week of March in a cautious mood. Prices have traded in a relatively narrow range for the past month, with Brent hovering between $73 and $78 per barrel as bullish supply-side discipline from OPEC+ is consistently offset by lingering demand-side uncertainty — particularly from China and the broader global manufacturing sector.
The week ahead is data-heavy, with several releases capable of moving prices by $2-3 in either direction. This report covers the previous week’s recap, supply and demand fundamentals, geopolitical factors, the event calendar, and technical levels to watch.
For background on how OPEC+ production decisions shape global oil markets, see our What Is OPEC? Members Explained guide.
Last Week Recap (March 1-7)
Brent crude opened the week at $75.80 and traded as high as $76.40 on Monday following reports of escalated tensions in the Red Sea region, before giving back gains through the rest of the week as macro headwinds dominated sentiment.
Key moves:
– Monday: +0.8% on geopolitical risk premium and short-covering after the prior week’s selloff.
– Tuesday-Wednesday: -1.5% across two sessions as the US dollar strengthened and the API reported a larger-than-expected crude inventory build of 4.8 million barrels.
– Thursday: Flat. Markets awaited the official EIA inventory data, which confirmed a 4.1 million barrel build (versus the 1.5 million expected).
– Friday: -0.6% as profit-taking ahead of the weekend combined with a downward revision to the IEA’s Q2 demand growth estimate.
Weekly close: Brent at ~$74.80 (-1.3%), WTI at ~$71.20 (-1.4%).
The net effect was a market unable to sustain any rally above $76, with sellers emerging consistently near that level.
OPEC+ Supply Picture
The OPEC+ alliance continues to operate under the production framework agreed at its November 2025 meeting, which outlined gradual production increases of approximately 180,000 barrels per day per month starting in April 2026. However, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman reiterated last week that the group retains full flexibility to pause or reverse increases if market fundamentals deteriorate.
Key supply factors:
– Saudi Arabia is currently producing approximately 9.0 million barrels per day, well below its capacity of ~12.5 million bpd. The kingdom’s commitment to price stability over volume remains the anchor of OPEC+ strategy.
– Russia reported compliance of roughly 85-90% with its pledged cuts, an improvement from earlier periods but still leaving an estimated 100,000-150,000 bpd of overproduction.
– Iraq and Kazakhstan continue to face scrutiny over compliance. Both countries submitted updated compensation plans for prior overproduction, which OPEC+ is monitoring.
– Iran remains outside the quota system. Iranian exports have been relatively stable at approximately 1.5-1.7 million bpd, though US policy shifts could impact this.
For a deeper analysis of Saudi Arabia’s role in global energy markets, see our Saudi Arabia Economy Guide.
US Shale and Inventory Data
US crude production remains near record levels at approximately 13.5 million barrels per day, according to the latest EIA weekly data. However, the rig count has declined modestly over the past two months, with Baker Hughes reporting 484 active oil rigs — down from 497 at the start of the year.
Inventory dynamics:
– Crude inventories: +4.1 million barrels (week ending Feb 28), the third consecutive build, bringing total commercial inventories to approximately 442 million barrels — above the five-year average.
– Gasoline inventories: -1.8 million barrels, a modest draw as refinery maintenance season reduces output.
– Distillate inventories: -1.2 million barrels, reflecting steady demand from the transportation and industrial sectors.
– Cushing, Oklahoma hub: Stocks rose by 1.3 million barrels, easing some tightness that had supported WTI spreads in prior weeks.
The sustained inventory builds are bearish for near-term prices, though they are partly seasonal — refinery maintenance typically reduces crude processing in Q1 before spring driving season demand picks up in April-May.
Demand Signals: China and India
China: The National Bureau of Statistics reported February manufacturing PMI at 50.2, technically in expansion territory but barely so. More concerning was the decline in new export orders to 47.8, suggesting external demand weakness. Chinese crude imports in January-February averaged approximately 10.8 million bpd, flat year-over-year and below the growth rates many had projected. The Lunar New Year distortion makes January-February data noisy, but the lack of a clear demand acceleration is weighing on bullish sentiment.
India: India continues to be the more reliable demand growth story. Refinery throughput in February reached approximately 5.6 million bpd, up 3.5% year-over-year, driven by strong domestic consumption of diesel and gasoline. India is expected to account for the largest share of incremental global oil demand growth in 2026, potentially adding 200,000-250,000 bpd year-over-year.
Global aviation: Jet fuel demand remains a positive driver, with international air travel still recovering structural ground lost during the pandemic and running approximately 4-5% above 2019 levels on key routes.
Geopolitical Risk Factors
- Red Sea / Houthi disruptions: Attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea continue at a reduced but persistent pace. The rerouting of tankers around the Cape of Good Hope adds approximately 10-15 days to Europe-Asia transit times and $2-4 million in additional shipping costs per voyage, supporting freight rates but having limited direct impact on crude price.
- Russia-Ukraine: The conflict remains a background factor. Russian crude continues to flow to global markets, primarily to China and India, at discounted prices. Any significant escalation or ceasefire development could move prices by $2-5.
- US-Iran relations: The trajectory of US policy toward Iranian oil exports remains uncertain. Any tightening of sanctions enforcement could remove 300,000-500,000 bpd of supply from the market, providing a meaningful bullish catalyst.
- Middle East broader: While the Israel-Gaza situation has evolved through various phases, the direct impact on oil supply infrastructure has been minimal. The risk premium associated with a wider regional escalation involving Iran has diminished from its peaks but has not fully dissipated.
Key Events This Week (March 8-13)
| Date | Event | Potential Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, Mar 9 | Saudi Aramco official selling prices (OSPs) for April — if not already released | Signals Saudi pricing strategy and demand assessment |
| Tue, Mar 10 | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) | Updated US production, demand, and price forecasts |
| Tue, Mar 10 | API weekly inventory report (after market) | Early indicator for Wednesday’s EIA data |
| Wed, Mar 11 | US CPI data (February) | Inflation read affects dollar strength and Fed expectations |
| Wed, Mar 11 | EIA weekly petroleum status report | Official inventory, production, and demand data |
| Thu, Mar 12 | OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) | OPEC’s own demand/supply forecasts; closely watched |
| Thu, Mar 12 | IEA Oil Market Report (if scheduled this week) | Demand growth estimates; often differs from OPEC |
| Fri, Mar 13 | Baker Hughes rig count | US drilling activity trend |
The confluence of US CPI, EIA STEO, and the OPEC MOMR in the same week makes this a potentially high-volatility period.
Technical Analysis
Brent Crude — Key Levels
| Level Type | Price (USD/bbl) | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | $79.50 | January 2026 high; requires fundamental catalyst to breach |
| Resistance 2 | $77.80 | 50-day moving average; failed test twice in February |
| Resistance 1 | $76.40 | Last week’s intra-week high; immediate overhead barrier |
| Current Price | ~$74.80 | — |
| Support 1 | $73.50 | February 2026 low; tested and held three times |
| Support 2 | $72.00 | 200-day moving average; critical medium-term support |
| Support 3 | $69.80 | December 2025 low; break below opens downside to mid-$60s |
Momentum: The 14-day RSI sits at 43, slightly below neutral, indicating neither oversold nor overbought conditions. MACD is in negative territory but showing early signs of convergence, suggesting bearish momentum may be fading.
Moving averages: The 50-day MA ($77.80) remains above the 200-day MA ($72.00), maintaining a technically bullish long-term structure. However, price is trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, reflecting short-term weakness.
Scenario Table: Week of March 8-13
| Scenario | Probability | Price Target (Brent) | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish breakout | 20% | $77-79 | EIA STEO raises demand estimate; US CPI comes in cool (supports rate cut expectations, weakens dollar); OPEC MOMR optimistic |
| Modest recovery | 30% | $75-77 | Mixed data; market consolidates; short-covering rallies on any supportive headline |
| Range-bound | 30% | $73.50-76 | Offsetting forces continue; no clear catalyst in either direction; markets digest data without conviction |
| Bearish breakdown | 20% | $71-73.50 | Hot CPI data strengthens dollar; EIA shows another large inventory build; OPEC MOMR cuts demand estimate; China data disappoints further |
Base case: The market is most likely to remain range-bound between $73.50 and $76.50, with data releases creating intra-week volatility but no sustained directional move. The $73.50 support level is critical — a close below it would likely trigger technical selling toward the 200-day moving average at $72.00.
Bottom Line
Oil prices are stuck in a tug-of-war between OPEC+ supply discipline (bullish) and uncertain global demand growth (bearish). The week of March 8-13 brings unusually dense data releases — EIA, OPEC, US CPI — that could resolve this impasse in either direction, or simply reinforce the current range. The $73.50-$76.50 band in Brent is the range to watch. A decisive break in either direction would set the tone for the rest of March.
This analysis is published by The Middle East Insider for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Oil prices are volatile and subject to rapid change. All data reflects available information as of March 7, 2026.
