In a dramatic eleventh-hour reversal just 90 minutes before his deadline expired, US President Donald Trump on April 7, 2026 announced he would suspend American strikes on Iran for two weeks in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council formally accepted the deal and declared ‘victory,’ stating that ‘nearly all war objectives have been achieved.’
This sudden turn followed weeks of escalating rhetoric, with Trump threatening just hours earlier that ‘a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.’ Global markets reacted violently: Brent crude crashed 15%, Dow futures jumped over 1,000 points, Japan’s Nikkei rallied 4.95%, and South Korea’s Kospi surged 5.8%.
Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif has invited delegations from both countries to Islamabad on Friday April 10 for comprehensive negotiations aimed at converting the temporary ceasefire into a permanent settlement. This analysis reveals the full deal terms, what Iran actually agreed to, the glaring gap in the agreement (Israel!), why Tehran considers this a strategic victory, and what happens after two weeks.
The Deal: Full Terms
How It Happened in the Final 90 Minutes
The timeline of the final hours before the presidential deadline:
- Tuesday morning April 7: Trump posts on Truth Social: ‘A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again’
- Midday: Intense meetings between Pakistani, Egyptian, and Turkish mediators with Tehran
- 5 PM ET: Reports leak that Iran has sent a new response through back channels
- 6:32 PM ET: Trump announces on Truth Social acceptance of two-week ceasefire
- Just before 8 PM ET (the deadline): Iran’s Supreme National Security Council formally accepts
- Asian markets open violently: Stocks surge, oil collapses
Deal Terms
| Provision | Details |
|---|---|
| Duration | Two weeks (until ~April 21, 2026) |
| US commitment | Immediate suspension of all strikes on Iran |
| Iran commitment | Reopen Strait of Hormuz to safe marine traffic |
| Iran condition | Vessels must coordinate with Iranian armed forces before transit |
| Israel | NOT included in agreement |
| Next negotiations | Islamabad, Friday April 10 |
| Mediators | Pakistan (lead), Egypt, Turkey, Oman |
Iran’s Words: ‘Victory’
The official statement from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council described the agreement as a clear Iranian victory. The pivotal sentence: ‘We have achieved nearly all the objectives of this war imposed upon us. The Iranian nation stood firm against the largest military coalition in modern history, and forced America to accept our terms.’
This statement was striking because it positions Iran as the victorious party in a conflict that was expected to economically and militarily devastate it. But the Iranian narrative has logic: Tehran proved it could impose enormous costs on the global economy by closing Hormuz, and forced the United States to retreat from its military deadline.
What Did Iran Actually Win?
Strategic Gains
Careful analysis reveals Iran achieved the following:
- Halt to direct US strikes — the most important immediate demand
- Recognition of its Hormuz leverage — the entire world saw that closing the strait forced America to back down
- International negotiating table — Islamabad instead of Washington, signaling Iran’s strength
- Domestic political stability — the government remains intact and the population united
- Disruption of US ‘maximum pressure’ strategy — effective end of Trump’s original approach
Losses No One Is Discussing
But Iran did not get everything it demanded:
- Sanctions remain — the Iranian economy still suffers under US sanctions
- Israel hasn’t stopped — Israeli operations in Lebanon, Gaza, and against Iran itself can continue
- Real military losses — IRGC intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Majid Khademi was killed, petrochemical infrastructure damaged
- Economy in critical condition — inflation 50%+, the rial has collapsed
- No compensation confirmed — Iran’s demand for war damage compensation was not accepted
The Israel Question: The Glaring Gap
Israel Is Not in the Picture
The most important point about this agreement isn’t what it includes — it’s what it doesn’t. Israel is not included. Trump announced a halt to American operations only. The Netanyahu government did not agree to a ceasefire and was not party to the negotiations.
This means:
- Israeli strikes on Iran may continue
- Iranian missiles on Israel may continue
- The war in Lebanon is unaffected
- Operations in Gaza are unaffected
- Any Israeli escalation could force America to re-engage
Why Was Israel Excluded?
Three reasons behind Israel’s exclusion:
1. Trump’s domestic calculations: Trump needs a ‘win’ he can market quickly. The Israelis would have obstructed any rapid agreement, and negotiations with them would have taken weeks.
2. Historical Iranian rejection: Iran does not recognize Israel as a legitimate state and cannot negotiate directly with it. Any comprehensive deal would require an intermediary.
3. Netanyahu’s opposition: The Israeli prime minister publicly opposed any deal that doesn’t guarantee ‘dismantling’ the Iranian nuclear program. This demand was unacceptable to Tehran.
Market Reaction: Oil Crashes, Stocks Soar
Oil: -15% in 6 Hours
The most dramatic reaction was in the oil market. Brent crude dropped from $109.53/barrel to approximately $95-97/barrel — a 15% decline in a single session, the largest in nearly six years. WTI crude dropped similarly from $112.01 to around $92-94.
The reason: traders repriced the war risk premium that our analysis estimated at $25-30/barrel. With expected return of 12 million barrels/day of supply to the market within weeks, prices moved quickly to reflect the new reality.
Stocks: Historic Rally
| Index | Change |
|---|---|
| Dow futures | +1,000 points |
| S&P 500 futures | +2.5% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | +3% |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | +4.95% |
| Kospi (South Korea) | +5.8% |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | +4.2% |
The Surprise: Gold Didn’t Crash
Gold fell only about 0.7% from $150/gram to approximately $148.50/gram. Why? Because gold’s structural drivers — central bank buying, dollar weakness, inflation — remain intact. The Iran war was a catalyst, but not the sole reason for gold’s rise. We explained this in our seven-factor analysis.
The Paradox: Gulf Stocks Dropped
Unexpectedly, Gulf and Egyptian stocks fell on the ceasefire. Saudi TASI -1.6%, EGX 30 -2%. The reason: with the end of the high oil revenue period, Gulf budgets will lose much of their windfall. Saudi Arabia alone was earning approximately $84 billion in additional annual revenue at the previous prices.
Islamabad Negotiations Friday April 10
What Will Be Discussed
Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif has formally invited both Iranian and American delegations to Islamabad on Friday April 10, 2026. Stated objectives:
- Convert the temporary ceasefire (two weeks) into a permanent agreement
- Establish a mechanism for normal Hormuz reopening
- Discuss gradual sanctions relief
- Address the Iranian nuclear program issue
- Indirectly involve Israel through mediators
Other Regional Mediators
Pakistan isn’t working alone. Egypt, Turkey, and Oman are also providing mediation channels. Each country has an angle:
- Pakistan: Lead mediator, historical relations with both Iran and the US
- Egypt: Arab diplomatic weight, importance of Suez Canal
- Turkey: NATO member with close Iran ties, Erdogan personally engaged
- Oman: Long history of US-Iran mediation
- Qatar: Back channels, relations with all parties
What Happens After Two Weeks? Three Scenarios
Scenario 1: Ceasefire Extended (50% probability)
Negotiations in Islamabad make progress but don’t conclude in two weeks. Both sides agree to extend the ceasefire another two weeks. Markets accept this positively. Prices stabilize at new levels.
Scenario 2: Permanent Deal (30% probability)
Negotiations succeed. A comprehensive agreement includes: permanent end to strikes, full Hormuz reopening, gradual sanctions relief over 6 months, mutual security guarantees. This scenario would push oil to $75-80/barrel and stocks to additional gains.
Scenario 3: Collapse and Return to War (20% probability)
Negotiations fail. One side accuses the other of violating terms. Trump executes his original threat of intensive strikes. Oil jumps to $130+, markets crash. Worst case but not impossible.
Impact on the Middle East
Egypt
Major winners from the ceasefire:
- Suez Canal: Gradual return of shipping traffic over weeks
- Egyptian pound: Less pressure, possibility of stability
- Fuel prices: Decrease in government expense
- Gulf tourism: Possible return through May
Gulf
The picture is mixed:
- Saudi Arabia: Loses additional oil revenue, Vision 2030 may be delayed
- UAE: Same suffering with less revenue
- Qatar: Benefits as natural mediator
- Kuwait: Recovery of oil exports
Lebanon and Palestine
The Lebanese and Palestinian situation is most complex:
- Lebanon: Israeli war hasn’t stopped, more than 1,497 casualties
- Gaza: Israeli operations continue
- Hope: Regional diplomatic pressure may push to address these fronts
Why This May Be the Beginning of the End of the War
Diplomatic Momentum
Although the ceasefire is temporary, it creates diplomatic momentum that may be irresistible. When parties begin negotiating, it’s hard to return to full war. Negotiations create personal links between officials, shared interests in stability, and international pressure on whoever threatens to collapse the deal.
War Fatigue
Everyone is tired: Iranians from economic damage, Americans from rising fuel prices and unpopularity, Israelis from continuous missiles, the entire region from instability. War fatigue is the strongest driver of peace.
Economic Incentives
Oil at $95 instead of $109 means billions in losses for OPEC+ members. But it also means the end of global panic. The new equilibrium may be less profitable for Gulf elites but more stable for everyone.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Iran-US two-week ceasefire?
An agreement signed April 7, 2026 suspending US strikes on Iran for two weeks in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Comprehensive negotiations begin in Islamabad Friday April 10.
Will Iran actually open the Strait of Hormuz?
Iran agreed to allow safe passage of vessels coordinated with Iranian armed forces. Actual shipping recovery will take 3-7 days because insurance companies need to verify safety.
Is the war between Iran and Israel over?
No. The agreement does not include Israel. Israeli operations against Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza may continue.
What did Iran win?
Halt to US strikes, recognition of its strategic strength, international negotiating table. Did not get sanctions removed or Israel halted.
When does the ceasefire end?
Approximately April 21, 2026. During this period, Pakistan hosts negotiations in Islamabad.
How did markets react?
Oil dropped 15%, global stocks rallied, gold barely moved, Bitcoin rose 3.4%. Gulf stocks dropped due to lost oil revenue.
Related Articles
For more, see Reuters Middle East, Al Jazeera, BBC Middle East, and CNN.
Last Updated: April 8, 2026 — This article has been updated following the actual ceasefire announcement
