Oil markets enter the second week of April weighed down by the reality of additional OPEC+ barrels hitting a market that is still searching for demand conviction. Brent crude is trading in the $70-72 range and WTI at $66-68, with both benchmarks drifting near the lower end of their 2026 trading channels. The April OPEC+ output increase — the first 135,000 b/d tranche of the gradual unwinding — is now in effect, and the market is digesting the incremental supply against a backdrop of mixed demand signals.

This weekly forecast covers the price recap, supply and demand dynamics, technical levels, inventory trends, and the key dates to watch through April 11.

Current Price Levels

Both benchmarks posted their second consecutive weekly decline. Brent tested the $70.50 level intra-week on Wednesday before recovering modestly into the Friday close. WTI briefly dipped below $67 on Thursday — its lowest print since late January — before short-covering lifted it back. Year-to-date returns have turned negative for both benchmarks, reflecting a market that has repriced the supply outlook lower since the OPEC+ unwinding began.

Weekly Price Action Recap

The prior week (Mar 29 – Apr 4) opened cautiously after the OPEC+ April production increase officially took effect on April 1. Monday’s session was subdued as traders assessed the first days of additional barrels flowing into the market. Tuesday saw modest buying on the back of a slightly better-than-expected China Caixin manufacturing PMI (50.5 vs. 50.3 expected), but the rally was capped at $71.80 Brent.

Wednesday brought the week’s sharpest move. The EIA weekly report showed a crude inventory build of 4.8 million barrels — the fourth consecutive weekly increase — sending Brent through the $71 level to test $70.50 support. Thursday continued lower after API data for the following week showed another estimated build, and the US ISM manufacturing index came in at 49.2, signaling contraction.

Friday saw a partial recovery as traders squared positions ahead of the weekend, with better-than-expected US non-farm payrolls (215,000 vs. 195,000 consensus) providing a modest risk-on lift.

OPEC+ Supply Picture

The first week of the April output increase has played out largely as expected. Key developments:

• April barrels: The 135,000 b/d increase is now in the market, distributed across participating OPEC+ members. Saudi Arabia’s output has moved from approximately 9.0 mb/d toward 9.1 mb/d.
• Compliance: Iraq and Kazakhstan remain the key overproducers. Combined overproduction is estimated at 350,000-400,000 b/d, meaning the effective supply increase from the April adjustment is larger than the headline figure.
• May decision preview: The April JMMC meeting concluded with a statement affirming the current trajectory, with the May increase of an additional 135,000 b/d expected to proceed. However, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman reiterated that the pace remains “data-dependent and adjustable.”
• Saudi Aramco production: Aramco’s operational cadence is consistent with the planned gradual increase. The company’s Q1 earnings (expected mid-May) will provide the first financial read on the new production trajectory.

The market’s concern remains directional: the OPEC+ unwinding has begun, and absent a demand shock or geopolitical disruption, the supply trajectory is pointing upward for the rest of 2026.

Demand Dynamics

Spring Refinery Turnarounds Winding Down

The seasonal refinery maintenance season that suppressed crude demand through March is winding down. US Gulf Coast refinery utilization has climbed from 85.2% in late March to approximately 87% in the latest reading, with further improvement expected through April as units come back online. European refineries are on a similar trajectory. The ramp-up in crude intake should provide a modest demand tailwind over the next two to three weeks.

US Driving Season Approaching

Gasoline demand seasonally increases from April through September as the Northern Hemisphere driving season approaches. The EIA’s latest short-term energy outlook projects US gasoline demand to average 9.1 mb/d in Q2 2026, up from 8.7 mb/d in Q1. This seasonal uplift is already partially priced in, but the actual pace of demand acceleration — which depends on gasoline prices, consumer confidence, and economic conditions — will provide a real-time read on the bullish case.

China Q1 GDP Data Approaching

The most significant demand-side event on the horizon is China’s Q1 2026 GDP report, due April 16. Consensus expectations are for 4.6-4.8% year-over-year growth. China’s crude imports in Q1 have been running at 10.8-11.1 mb/d — flat to slightly below year-ago levels, despite lower prices. A GDP miss could accelerate the bearish narrative; an upside surprise could provide the demand-side catalyst the market needs to stabilize.

EIA and IEA Monthly Reports

Both the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (due April 8) and the IEA’s Oil Market Report (due April 10) will be released during the week ahead. These reports will provide updated supply-demand balance projections that incorporate the April OPEC+ increase. Any downward revision to demand growth forecasts or upward revision to non-OPEC supply would amplify bearish sentiment.

US Inventory Trends

Four consecutive weeks of crude inventory builds have pushed stocks well above the five-year seasonal average. The builds are partly a function of the refinery turnaround season, but the persistence is notable and is weighing on WTI price action. Gasoline and distillate draws provide some offset, but the headline crude build number is dominating sentiment.

Technical Analysis

Brent remains below its 50-day moving average ($72.00) for the second consecutive week, a confirmed bearish signal. The $70.00 level is the next major support — a psychological round number that aligns with technical support from December 2025. A sustained break below $70 would open a path to $69, where stronger buying interest has historically emerged.

WTI’s position is similarly weak, trading below the 50-day MA ($68.40) and approaching the $66.50 support zone. The 200-day MAs for both benchmarks ($73.80 Brent, $70.20 WTI) are now overhead resistance that would require a significant catalyst to reclaim.

Week-Ahead Outlook

Base case (55% probability): Brent trades $69.50-72.00. WTI holds $66.00-68.00. Prices consolidate at lower levels. The refinery ramp-up provides a modest floor, but the EIA/IEA reports and continued inventory builds cap upside. Market treads water ahead of China Q1 GDP.

Bull case (20%): EIA and IEA reports project tighter-than-expected H2 2026 balances, triggering a short-covering rally. Brent recovers to $72.50-73.50, reclaiming the 50-day MA. US gasoline demand data surprises to the upside as early driving season indicators strengthen.

Bear case (25%): IEA downgrades 2026 demand growth, and a fifth consecutive US crude build pushes Brent below $70 for the first time since January. WTI tests the $65 level. Sentiment shifts decisively bearish ahead of China GDP data, with positioning reflecting expectations of a miss.

Key Dates to Watch

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the oil price forecast for this week (Apr 5-11, 2026)?

The base case is for Brent crude to trade in a $69.50-72.00 range and WTI to hold between $66.00 and $68.00. Prices are expected to consolidate at lower levels as the market digests the OPEC+ April production increase, monitors EIA and IEA monthly reports, and positions cautiously ahead of China’s Q1 GDP release on April 16.

Why are oil prices falling in April 2026?

Oil prices have drifted lower due to the OPEC+ production unwinding now in effect (135,000 b/d added in April), four consecutive weeks of US crude inventory builds pushing stocks above the five-year average, overproduction from Iraq and Kazakhstan exceeding the official increase, and cautious demand signals from China. The seasonal refinery turnaround period also reduced crude intake through March, though this headwind is now fading.

What is OPEC+ doing with production in April 2026?

OPEC+ began its gradual unwinding of voluntary production cuts in April, adding 135,000 b/d to group output. This is the first step in a phased plan to return an estimated 600,000-800,000 b/d by year-end. The May increase of an additional 135,000 b/d is expected to proceed, though Saudi Arabia has emphasized the pace remains data-dependent. The April JMMC meeting affirmed the current trajectory.

How does China affect oil prices this week?

China is the world’s largest crude importer at 10.8-11.1 mb/d. While no major Chinese data is due this specific week, the market is positioning ahead of China’s Q1 2026 GDP report on April 16. Consensus expects 4.6-4.8% year-over-year growth. Chinese crude imports have been flat to slightly below year-ago levels, and a disappointing GDP reading could push Brent below the critical $70 support level.

What are the key support and resistance levels for oil prices?

Brent’s immediate support is at $70.00 — a psychologically significant round number with technical support from December 2025. Stronger support sits at $69.00. Resistance is at $72.00 (the 50-day moving average) and $73.50. For WTI, support levels are $66.50 and $65.00, with resistance at $68.00 and $69.50. Both benchmarks are below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a bearish technical configuration.

Key Takeaways

• Brent crude closed at $70.95 and WTI at $67.20, both posting their second consecutive weekly decline as the OPEC+ April production increase takes effect and US crude inventories build for a fourth straight week.
• The OPEC+ unwinding is now underway, with 135,000 b/d added to group output in April. Overproduction from Iraq and Kazakhstan means the effective supply increase exceeds the headline figure.
• Spring refinery maintenance is winding down, with US utilization recovering from 85.2% to 87%, which should provide modest demand support as crude intake increases through April.
• The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (April 8) and IEA Oil Market Report (April 10) are the key events for the week, with any downward demand revision likely to amplify bearish sentiment.
• China’s Q1 GDP report on April 16 is the dominant macro overhang. Chinese crude imports running flat to lower year-over-year, despite cheaper prices, have raised concerns about structural demand weakness.
• Technical indicators remain bearish, with both Brent and WTI below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The $70 level for Brent is the critical line to hold.

For deeper context on oil market dynamics, read our guides to What Is OPEC?, OPEC and Oil Prices, and Saudi Aramco Explained.