The Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) enters the final week of March and the opening of Q2 with a more cautious tone than it carried a week ago. After retreating from the 12,582 level, the index closed at 12,380 on March 28 — a 1.6% weekly decline that snapped a two-week winning streak. The pullback was driven by softer oil prices, profit-taking in banking names, and positioning ahead of Q1 2026 earnings season, which begins in mid-April.

The Saudi stock market now faces a pivotal week. Oil prices are at six-week lows, Q1 earnings expectations need to be validated, and dividend season is approaching for several heavyweight names. This weekly outlook covers performance, sector dynamics, Aramco stock, foreign flows, and key levels for the week ahead.

Weekly Performance Summary

TASI posted its worst weekly performance since early February. Daily volumes averaged SAR 6.2 billion — notably above the 30-day average of SAR 5.5 billion — indicating that the selling was active and conviction-driven rather than a low-volume drift lower. The index opened the week at 12,540, sold off sharply on Wednesday following the weak US crude inventory data, and continued lower into the Thursday close before a minor Friday bounce.

The elevated volume on down days is a cautionary signal. When selling is accompanied by above-average participation, it typically suggests institutional repositioning rather than retail noise.

Top Movers (Week Ending Mar 28)

Top Gainers

Top Decliners

The reversal in Maaden stands out. After gaining 2.8% the prior week on gold price momentum, Maaden gave back all those gains and then some as gold retreated from $3,050 to $3,010. SAB and Al Rajhi — the banking sector leaders from the previous week — both suffered profit-taking as investors locked in gains ahead of Q1 earnings.

Sector Breakdown

Banking

The banking sector gave back most of its March gains, with the Tadawul Banks Index down 2.1% for the week. The reversal was triggered by:

• Profit-taking: Al Rajhi Bank and SAB had been the strongest performers in March, making them natural targets as the quarter closed.
• SAMA credit data: February credit growth data, released March 27, came in at 9.8% year-over-year — solid but slightly below the 10.5% consensus that had been supporting optimistic earnings expectations. The miss was modest but sufficient to justify trimming positions.
• Q1 earnings positioning: Consensus expects the banking sector to deliver 7–9% earnings growth in Q1 2026. With Al Rajhi trading at 14x forward earnings and SNB at 12x, the market needs earnings to meet expectations to justify current valuations. Pre-earnings uncertainty typically favors defensive positioning.

Alinma Bank was the sole banking gainer, up 1.2%, after an analyst initiation with an overweight rating citing its higher exposure to mortgage growth and lower cost-to-income ratio.

Petrochemicals

The petrochemicals sector was mixed, with the directional split driven by feedstock exposure. Saudi Kayan gained 1.8% on news of a planned capacity expansion that would improve its product mix toward higher-margin specialty chemicals. SABIC, by contrast, fell 2.4% as oil prices weakened and Asian polymer pricing data showed continued margin compression for basic chemicals.

Key considerations for the week ahead:
– Brent at $71.85 is approaching the lower end of the range where Saudi petrochemical margins begin to compress.
– China’s March PMI (due March 31) is a direct read on downstream chemical demand.
– Any SABIC pre-announcement of Q1 results would move the sector.

Retail and Consumer

The retail sector was quiet with a slight negative bias. Jarir Marketing was flat after the prior week’s 2.4% decline. Consumer sentiment surveys for March showed stable domestic spending, supported by Ramadan-related retail activity in early March. The sector is not a near-term catalyst but offers defensive positioning if oil prices continue lower.

Aramco Stock Analysis

Saudi Aramco dipped below SAR 28.50 for the first time since January, tracking the decline in oil prices. At SAR 28.05, the stock is now slightly negative for the year — a notable shift from the modest positive territory it occupied through most of March.

Key watch items for Aramco this week:
– Oil price trajectory: A further decline in Brent toward $70 would likely push Aramco below SAR 28.00, a psychologically significant level.
– OPEC+ April output: The beginning of the production unwinding is net positive for Aramco’s revenue volume but negative for the price environment. The market is pricing in the latter more than the former.
– Dividend stability: The base dividend of $19.5 billion per quarter remains fully covered. However, the performance-linked dividend component is sensitive to oil prices, and a sustained move below $70 in Brent would raise questions about the size of the variable payment.

Foreign Investor Positioning

Foreign investors accelerated their selling, with QFI net outflows of SAR 480 million — the largest weekly outflow since mid-January. The selling was concentrated in banking and energy names, consistent with the broader risk-off rotation visible in emerging market funds globally.

Year-to-date foreign flows remain positive at SAR 2.07 billion, but the trajectory has deteriorated. Two consecutive weeks of net outflows suggest that some international investors are reducing Saudi exposure ahead of Q1 earnings and the uncertainty around OPEC+ policy execution.

Dividend Season Impacts

The coming weeks mark the beginning of dividend season for several TASI heavyweights. Key dates:

Dividend announcements typically support share prices in the weeks leading up to record dates, as income-focused investors and funds position to capture yields. This provides a natural floor for heavyweight names even in a softer market environment.

Key Economic Releases

The Saudi PMI (published by Riyad Bank/S&P Global) is the most directly relevant domestic data point. February PMI came in at 58.4 — firmly in expansion territory. A reading above 57 for March would signal continued private sector strength and support the case for earnings beats. The China PMI is equally important given its impact on oil prices and petrochemical demand.

Support and Resistance Levels

TASI has broken below its 50-day moving average (12,470) and is approaching its 200-day moving average (12,310). This is a technically precarious position. If the index fails to reclaim 12,470 early in the week, the next test is the 200-day MA at 12,310, which has served as a reliable support zone throughout 2025 and early 2026.

A close below 12,200 would be a significant technical breakdown and could trigger momentum-driven selling toward the 12,050 level. Conversely, a quick recovery above 12,500 would suggest the prior week’s decline was a healthy correction within the broader uptrend.

Week-Ahead Outlook

Base case (50% probability): TASI trades in the 12,200–12,500 range. The index finds support near the 200-day MA (12,310) and consolidates. Dividend positioning provides a floor, but oil weakness and foreign selling cap upside.

Bull case (20%): Strong China PMI (above 51) lifts oil prices and petrochemical sentiment. TASI reclaims the 50-day MA at 12,470 and pushes toward 12,600. Banking names recover on pre-earnings optimism.

Bear case (30%): Weak China PMI (below 50) pushes Brent below $70, dragging Aramco below SAR 28.00 and TASI through the 200-day MA at 12,310. The index tests 12,050 support. Continued foreign selling amplifies downside momentum.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the TASI index level this week?

As of March 28, 2026, the TASI index closed at 12,380, down 1.6% for the week — the worst weekly performance since early February. The index is up 2.1% year-to-date and is currently trading between its 50-day moving average (12,470) and 200-day moving average (12,310).

Why did the Saudi stock market fall this week?

TASI declined due to a combination of factors: weaker oil prices (Brent at $71.85, a six-week low), profit-taking in banking names that had rallied in prior weeks, below-consensus SAMA credit growth data, and accelerating foreign investor outflows of SAR 370 million. The selling was accompanied by above-average trading volumes, suggesting institutional rather than retail-driven repositioning.

How is Saudi Aramco stock performing?

Saudi Aramco (2222.SR) closed at SAR 28.05, down 1.9% for the week and now slightly negative year-to-date at -0.2%. The stock is tracking lower oil prices and faces a mixed outlook as OPEC+ begins adding production in April — positive for volume but negative for the price environment. The trailing dividend yield of 6.4% provides support.

When is Q1 2026 earnings season for Saudi stocks?

Q1 2026 earnings season for Tadawul-listed companies begins in mid-April. Major banks (Al Rajhi, SNB, SAB) and Saudi Aramco typically report within the first two weeks of the earnings window. Consensus expects banking sector earnings growth of 7–9% and stable Aramco earnings at current oil price levels.

What are the key support levels for TASI?

Immediate support is at the 200-day moving average of 12,310, which has held as a reliable floor throughout 2025 and early 2026. Secondary support sits at 12,200, with a more significant level at 12,050. A break below 12,200 would represent a meaningful technical deterioration and could trigger further selling.

Key Takeaways

• TASI fell 1.6% to 12,380, its worst weekly decline since February, driven by oil price weakness, banking sector profit-taking, and accelerating foreign outflows.
• Saudi Aramco dipped to SAR 28.05, turning negative year-to-date as Brent crude traded at six-week lows near $71.85.
• Foreign investors were net sellers for a second consecutive week, with QFI outflows of SAR 480 million — the largest since mid-January — concentrated in banking and energy names.
• TASI has broken below its 50-day moving average (12,470) and is approaching the critical 200-day MA at 12,310, placing the index in a technically vulnerable position.
• Q1 earnings season begins in mid-April, with consensus expecting 7–9% banking sector growth. The market needs earnings to meet expectations to justify current valuations.
• Approaching dividend season for Aramco, Al Rajhi, SNB, and STC provides a natural support mechanism as income-focused investors position for record dates in April.

For broader market context, read our guides to Middle East Stock Markets, the Saudi Arabia Economy, and Saudi Aramco Explained.